Good Morning and Happy Friday! Jamie Dimon changed his tune on tariffs two months after his ‘get over it’ line. Meanwhile, China is "laughing" at ongoing trade wars between the US and its allies, a top EU diplomat says.

New York City’s population is finally growing again, and Manhattan median rent jumped to another record high of $4,500. Oracle is a top pick for a TikTok sale, and Larry Ellison is telling retail investors to buy the dip.

Plus: Crown Castle sells its fiber business for $8.5 billion and how to develop your executive presence.

Deal teams from CVC to Warburg Pincus are leveraging Mosaic to build bid-ready LBO models in under 5 minutes…it's time that you do too.

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Welcome to the Correction

The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory yesterday, sliding more than 10% from its recent peak. Investors are bracing for more turmoil as President Trump's escalating trade policies send ripples through Wall Street.

Yesterday the S&P 500 dropped another 1.4%, which was its sharpest drop since Trump was inaugurated. The Nasdaq also tumbled 2%.

The uncertainty stems from escalating tariffs and policy fluctuations. Recently, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, prompting the European Union to announce a 50% tariff on American whiskey, effective April 1. In retaliation, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wines and spirits. This tit-for-tat has made companies and consumers hesitant, pressuring spending and corporate investments.

The deeper worry is that this isn’t just volatility—it’s an early warning of economic downturn. “Markets are clearly flashing recession risks,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global strategist at Invesco. “This isn’t what investors were expecting in 2025.”

And history backs that fear. This is the 11th correction since the 2008 crash. Three of those turned into full-blown bear markets—declines of 20% or more. Right now, the Russell 2000 is down 18%, teetering on the edge.

Besides the trade war spiral, immigration crackdowns and mass layoffs at federal agencies are also adding labor market uncertainty.

Retailers like Dollar General are reporting lower foot traffic, while Delta just slashed its revenue forecast. Even good news is failing to calm investors. Strong unemployment numbers and a better-than-expected CPI reading barely moved markets on Wednesday. Why? Because inflation now depends on tariffs and policy shifts, not past data.

Takeaway: So far, Trump’s economic strategy has markets on edge. Investors thought 2025 was going to be a solid year for equities, but now they’re recalculating their bets, tech stocks are cratering, and consumer confidence is wavering. If the market doesn’t find its footing soon, this correction could turn into something worse. And history shows, when uncertainty meets a downturn, it rarely ends well for investors.

_{PRESENTED BY MOSAIC}

Your Next LBO Model Done in 5 Minutes

Time is money. If you’re still manually building LBO models from scratch, you’re wasting both.

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Why spend hours in excel when you can model an entire deal in just 5 minutes?

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Jamie Dimon changes his tune on tariffs (CNN)

• China is ‘laughing’ at U.S. trade wars (BB)

• Passengers evacuate after American Airlines plane erupts in flames (Fox)

• Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on champagne, other EU spirits (CNBC)

• Oracle top pick for TikTok sale (TC)

• NYC population finally growing again after pandemic exodus (NYT)

• Ex-staffer sues Deutsche Bank for $165 million over career hit (YF)

• Manhattan apartment rents jump to record as bidding wars spread (BB)

• Banks are putting big money behind data centers (YF)

• Larry Fink sees market pullback as buying opportunity (CNN)

• Trump doubles down on tariff plans as stocks sink (CNBC)

• Maker of Roomba has substantial doubt about survival (CNN)

• Ares seeks to buy New World development debt from banks (YF)

• SpaceX launch to help stranded astronauts come home postponed (BBC)

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Markets Rundown

Markets Stumble Amid Policy Fog Despite Inflation Bright Spot

Equities slid Thursday despite upbeat inflation news, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1%, now 10% off its mid-February peak, as policy jitters overshadowed data.

February’s PPI held flat—below the expected 0.3% rise—and grew 3.2% yearly, the tamest since April 2024, echoing yesterday’s mild CPI.

Jobless claims dipped to 220,000, beating forecasts of 226,000, signaling labor strength despite federal layoff noise.

Yet, tariff fears and a looming government shutdown spooked markets, lifting defensive sectors like utilities while growth areas—communication services and consumer discretionary—tanked.

Bond yields eased to 4.27%, and diversification shone, with international stocks and bonds up year-to-date. Inflation’s downward trend suggests the Fed will hold next week but could cut rates to 3.5%-4% by year-end, viewing tariffs as a one-time blip.

In Washington, a shutdown looms as Schumer resists a House funding bill needing 60 Senate votes by Friday’s midnight deadline—history shows markets often shrug off such dramas, with the S&P 500 up during the last five shutdowns.

Pullbacks sting, but they’re routine—averaging one 10% dip yearly since 1928—hinting at resilience beyond the haze.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Intel ($INTC) +15% after the chipmaker announced a new CEO.

• (–) Adobe ($ADBE) -14% because of a downgrade by Deutsche Bank.

• (–) iRobot ($IRBT) -25% after Roomba maker raises doubt about its survival.

Private Dealmaking

• Crown Castle sells its fiber business for $8.5 Billion

• Insilico Medicine, an AI drug design startup, raised $110 million

• Lumafield, a CT tech developer, raised $75 million

• Vori Health, a musculoskeletal care business, raised $53 million

• Blackwall, a cybersecurity solutions provider, raised $48 million 

• Bria, a gen AI platform, raised $40 million

• Cloudsmith, a supply chain security startup, raised $23 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Risks and Returns

Before being named President Trump’s Secretary of Commerce in 2017, Wilbur Ross had already earned a reputation as the “King of Bankruptcy” over his 55-year career on Wall Street.

Often working on high-profile bankruptcies such as Pan Am and Texaco, Ross helped restructure more than $400 billion in assets, and was named among Bloomberg’s 50 most influential people in global finance.

After coming to Washington, Ross faced equally tough challenges, yet survived in his post for all four years.

Risks and Returns explains how Ross got to the top and stayed there. Rising from humble beginnings in North Bergen, New Jersey, Ross applied simple principles with strict discipline—something readers can apply in their own quest for success.

Ultimately, Ross’s strategies and dealmaking skills led to relationships with King Charles, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, the Rothschild family, Steve Wynn, Lakshmi Mittal, Mike Milken, and many other famous personalities. Ross also documents his experiences with President Trump in the Oval Office.

Whether you’re interested in Ross’s experiences as a neighbor of John Lennon in the legendary Dakota apartment building, celebrating with Sir Richard Branson on his private island, or his tumultuous time in Washington, you will find Risks and Returns to be a candid reflection of a life lived at the pinnacle of Wall Street, New York, and Palm Beach society, and the Trump administration.

Above all, anyone driven to find career success will learn from Ross’s life the strategies and mentality to achieve it.

“Lessons from a Wall Street legend.”

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Porsche Problems

_{PRESENTED BY KALSHI}

Recession Looming?

Is the U.S. on the verge of recession? Recent market volatility, driven by President Trump's tariff policies and federal layoffs, has heightened these concerns. Market has entered correction territory, with the S&P 500 dropping 7.3% this month alone.

Despite these jitters, mentions of "recession" in S&P 500 companies' earnings calls are at their lowest since early 2018. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.7%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is projecting a -2.4% GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025, indicating potential economic contraction.

For those looking to navigate these uncertain times, Kalshi offers a unique platform to engage with recession forecasts.

Currently traders are forecasting a 37% chance of a recession this year. What do you think? Make your recession prediction on Kalshi.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Stress

Stress isn’t just a nuisance—it’s a sneaky booster hiding in plain sight, ready to turn chaos into wins.

Studies show those who see it as a challenge, not a curse, come out sharper and tougher.

A quick double inhale and slow exhale can zap anxiety fast, while keeping stress at a thrilling hum—not a crushing roar—hones your edge.

Count down from five to kickstart action, and let tough moments build you stronger.

Picture yourself years from now, unbothered by today’s mess, then harness stress with a simple routine—breathe, move, reflect—to take charge.

It’s not here to sink you; it’s the jolt that can lift you higher.

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Short Squeez Picks

• How to develop your executive presence

• What is water really worth

• 2 types of red flags in job interviews

• 6 green flags to look for in your partner

• 5 traits of leaders who excel at decision making

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day