Good Morning! Markets rebounded yesterday on hopes that Trump may soften the next wave of tariffs, with Tesla alone jumping 12%. Deutsche Bank now pegs recession odds at nearly 50%, while Blackstone’s Jon Gray warned investors against knee-jerk reactions to tariffs.

Clearlake Capital Group agreed to acquire one of Wall Street’s oldest data and analytics providers, Dun & Bradstreet, for $4.1 billion. Hyundai announced a $21 billion investment in the United States, just days before Trump rolls out reciprocal tariffs.

2024 might be the first year in a decade that no CEO made $100 million. 23andMe filed for bankruptcy and wants to sell itself, and your DNA data’s future could be foggy.

Plus, the IRS is bracing for a tax revenue nosedive, Google’s $32 billion Wiz deal could spark life into IPO and M&A markets, and designer handbags might be the next hot investment.

Invest in leading private credit funds – earn up to 12% yield with Heron Finance.

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Wall Street’s Favorite 6-Letter Word

If you work on Wall Street, EBITDA is probably the word you hear the most on a daily basis. If you don’t, well, you’ve definitely seen a meme or two about it. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Private equity firms are hoping that the last two letters — “DA” — could turn their portfolio companies into tax-saving machines.

Right now, U.S. tax law generally limits the deductibility of interest expenses to 30% of EBIT, a narrower metric that excludes depreciation and amortization. But PE firms are lobbying to bring back the EBITDA-based cap that existed under Trump’s 2017 tax law before it expired in 2022.

The logic is simple: EBITDA is a bigger number than EBIT, so switching back would mean larger deductions, and potentially 15%+ more in tax savings for highly leveraged companies.

It’s a big deal for an industry built on leverage. In 2024 alone, PE-backed speculative-grade borrowers took out $384 billion in syndicated loans, the second-highest total since 2000. And every extra dollar of deductibility helps bolster returns.

To strengthen their case in D.C., private equity is forming alliances with manufacturers and equipment lenders, arguing that restoring EBITDA-based deductibility would lower the cost of capital, spur investment, and create U.S. jobs. Even Ernst & Young was tapped to quantify the economic damage if EBIT remains the standard.

Takeaway: The catch is the government might lose $179 billion over a decade if the EBITDA rule is reinstated. But with higher interest rates, recession fears, and a looming “big, beautiful” tax bill in the works, lobbyists are betting lawmakers will focus more on growth and booming businesses than the fiscal math.

_{PRESENTED BY HERON FINANCE}

A Platform That Would Make Howard Marks Proud

Howard Marks has long championed credit strategies as a core part of resilient portfolios. And in today’s market, private credit is having its moment—delivering strong yields and consistent income while sidestepping the volatility of public markets.

Heron Finance brings that credit-forward thinking to accredited investors, offering exposure to world class private credit deals once reserved for institutional investors.

How does Heron do it?

Heron builds you a personalized portfolio with exposure to funds from Ares, Apollo, KKR, and more.

With Heron, you can:

• Earn 7–12% target yields through a diversified portfolio of high-quality loans

• Receive monthly income from interest payments

• Retain flexibility—no lockups or long-term commitments

• Automate reinvestment to grow your capital over time

• Personalize your risk profile through a tailored portfolio structure

Whether you’re building a passive income stream or hedging against market volatility, Heron simplifies private credit—without the fund fees, long holding periods, or institutional gatekeeping.

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Top Reads

• Stocks soar on hopes Trump may dial back next tariff wave (YF) 

• Deutsche says probability of a recession is approaching 50% (CNBC)

• Blackstone’s Jon Gray warns against knee-jerk reactions to tariffs (BB)

• Trump administration is reviewing how its national security team sent war plans to a magazine editor (CNBC)

• Nvidia, AMD, Meta lead tech rally as tariff news, AI gains lift sector (YF)

• No $100M CEOs for 2024 (WSJ)

• Ray Dalio will advise Indonesia’s new $900B sovereign wealth fund (Fortune)

• Trump to impose 25% tariff on nations buying Venezuela's oil, gas (YF)

• Hyundai steel plant leads $21 billion U.S. investment, as tariffs loom (Axios)

• Tax revenue collected by the IRS set to plummet (CNBC)

• NA testing firm 23andMe files for bankruptcy to sell itself (CNBC)

• What 23andMe's bankruptcy means for your personal data (Axios)

• Watchdog warns DOGE cuts threaten financial system (Axios)

• IBM to slash nearly 9,000 jobs in US (YF)

• Google's $32B Wiz deal may be turning point for IPO, M&A markets (CNBC)

• Are designer handbags an actual investment? (CNBC)

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Markets Rundown

Stocks Rally on Tariff Relief, Services Surge

Stocks closed higher Monday, as reports hinted Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariffs might narrow, targeting key trade partners rather than broad levies—easing inflation fears and sparking trade deal hopes.

Consumer discretionary and communication stocks led, signaling risk-on vibes.

Europe dipped despite a Flash Eurozone Services PMI of 52.9 (expansion, but below estimates), while the U.S. dollar gained and WTI crude rose on OPEC’s tighter supply outlook.

S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI jumped to 54.3 (vs. 50.8 expected), fueled by output and tariff-driven prices, outweighing a Flash Manufacturing PMI drop to 49.8 (vs. 51.9 expected) from fewer pre-tariff orders.

10-year Treasury yield hit 4.34%, with markets still betting on two Fed cuts in 2025—lower rates could juice profits, but the Fed’s eyeing tariff fallout before moving.

Services strength trumps manufacturing wobble, keeping the economy humming.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Tesla ($TSLA) +12% after a 9-week slump; investor optimism on strong Q1 deliveries.

• (+) Pinterest ($PINS) +5% because Guggenheim upgraded the social media company.

• (–) 23andMe ($ME) -59% after the DNA testing company filed for bankruptcy and ousted its CEO; will seek a buyer.

Private Dealmaking

• James Hardie bought AZEK for $8.75 billion

• Clearlake Capital bought Dun & Bradstreet for $7.7 billion

• The Bot Co, a robotics startup, raised $150 million

• Cardiac Dimensions, a heart failure treatment startup, raised $53 million

• Rain, a credit card issuer, raised $24.5 million

• SkySpecs, an infrastructure monitoring startup, raised $20 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Stress Paradox

There’s a breakthrough happening in the study of wellness and longevity. We know that excessive stress can be toxic, but emerging new research reveals that too little stress is just as bad for you as too much.

Dr. Sharon Bergquist, a pioneering physician and leading stress researcher, is at the forefront of this movement. In The Stress Paradox, she explains that our bodies are designed to heal and repair themselves, but we need the right amount and type of stress to rejuvenate at a cellular level.

Many modern comforts have inadvertently increased our risk of mental and physical illness by causing us to underutilize our inherited response to challenges. Our need for stress is so deeply embedded in our genes that you can’t achieve good health without it!

Dr. Bergquist reveals how to optimize five key stressors to maximize mental, emotional, and physical resilience and reap a host of health benefits, from staving off dementia to increasing the years of your life.

These simple lifestyle changes can keep your mind sharp, improve your mood, increase energy and metabolism, support a healthy gut, maintain a healthy weight, and decrease your risk of serious diseases like cancer, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and Alzheimer’s.

“The Stress Paradox will forever shift your perception of stress while guiding you on a path towards health, happiness, and longevity.”

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The Share of Unauthorized Immigrants in Agriculture

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6 Fintech Predictions From Plaid

Charlie Munger didn’t hold back on AI: “I think the hype is a little more than the reality.”

And according to Plaid’s Fintech Predictions 2025 Report, fintech’s AI revolution won’t live up to expectations—at least not yet.

The real story?

• AI will optimize, not transform, financial services over the next year.

• Fraud prevention is what all the banks will be talking about.

• Stablecoins are poised for major growth.

While AI headlines grab attention, the real fintech energy in 2025 is flowing into fraud detection, payments, and compliance. Want to separate the hype from reality?

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Mind Over Matter

Your mind shapes your body more than you think.

In a 1979 study, elderly men lived like it was the 1950s and emerged with sharper hearing, memory, and vitality—proof that mindset can rewind the clock.

From nursing home residents doubling survival odds by tending plants, to housekeepers shedding weight by seeing work as exercise, studies reveal expectations tweak physiology.

Even diabetics burned sugar faster when tricked into perceiving time sped up.

Langer argues we dismiss this as “placebo” at our peril—it’s a tool to wield.

Question rigid diagnoses, ditch dire predictions, and notice symptom shifts—pain ebbs and flows if you watch it.

It’s not about ditching meds, but flexing mental muscle to ease stress, boost health, and rewrite limits we’ve mindlessly bought into.

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Short Squeez Picks

• 3 phrases no one should ever say in a negotiation

• Can you learn more about business from your mom than an MBA?

• Do you really need a hobby to be successful?

• The 3 pillars of thought leadership

• How to know when it’s time to quit a job

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Memes of the Day