Good Morning! Ray Dalio warned of an 'economic heart attack' for the U.S. economy. Anthropic raised $3.5B at a $61.5B valuation. Trump announced a $100B investment from Taiwan Semiconductor. Peter Thiel’s fintech Ramp closed a secondary sale at a $13B valuation.

Kroger’s CEO abruptly exited following a “personal conduct” investigation, Chipotle promises to absorb any cost increases from tariffs, NYC remains the undefeated champ when it comes to attracting college grads, and how to walk someone through your resume.

Hiring abroad? Stay compliant with Deel’s International Hiring Guide.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Trade Wars are Back

President Donald Trump announced that, effective today, the United States will impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy imports facing a 10% tariff. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese goods have been increased from 10% to 20%, aiming to pressure Beijing to curb fentanyl shipments to the U.S.

The markets did what you could expect when the world’s largest economy declared economic war on its two biggest trading partners. Stocks nosedived. Tech led the freefall. Manufacturing companies followed suit.

And any remaining hope that this was a negotiating tactic dissolved the moment Trump called tariffs “easy, fast, efficient.”

Retaliation is already in motion. Canada is hitting back with 25% tariffs on $100 billion worth of U.S. goods, and Mexico is preparing its own countermeasures. China’s response is even harsher—Beijing is placing 15% tariffs on U.S. soybeans and beef while adding 10 American firms to its unreliable entity list and restricting exports of key manufacturing materials.

For the U.S. economy, the timing couldn’t be worse according to some economists. Growth is slowing. Inflation is still lurking. Consumer confidence is slipping. And now, just as supply chains were finally starting to stabilize, the auto industry and cross-border manufacturing are bracing for chaos. 

Trump is just getting started with tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs are next, with country-by-country levies designed to mirror foreign tax regimes. Steel and aluminum tariffs are coming in March. Sectoral tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals could hit in April. 

Takeaway: The trade wars economists warned about are no longer hypothetical, they're officially here. With inflation lingering and growth slowing, tariffs on key trading partners could be the spark that turns a slowdown into something worse. For Trump, it's all part of the plan. For the economy? Time to find out if tariffs age like fine wine… or expired milk.

_{PRESENTED BY DEEL}

Warning: May Cause Excessive Knowledge of Global Labor Laws

Managing an international team sounds exciting—until it’s time to deal with cross-border payroll, local tax laws, and compliance regulations.

Deel’s International Hiring Guide takes the guesswork out of global team management, helping you stay compliant and avoid costly mistakes.

Here’s what’s inside:

• Country-Specific Compliance: Avoid fines with tailored insights on local labor laws.

• Tax & Employment Laws Simplified: Make sense of the legal maze with ease.

• Payroll Best Practices: Ensure your team gets paid on time, every time.

Stay focused on growth—let Deel handle the complexity of international payroll.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Dalio manager warns of 'economic heart attack' for US economy (Fox)

• Amazon-backed AI firm Anthropic valued at $61.5B after latest round (CNBC)

• Ramp secures $13B valuation in secondary shares deal (NBC)

• Rothschild hires ex-Moelis banker recorded in viral punching incident (FT)

• Nvidia tumbles as chip smuggling report spooks investors (YF)

• Kroger CEO suddenly out after "personal conduct" investigation (Axios)

• Trump, TSMC tout $100B investment in US chip manufacturing (YF)

• FDIC to seek rollback of bank merger rule (YF)

• These companies are lowering prices despite rising inflation and looming tariffs (CNN)

• Chipotle CEO says company will absorb any cost increases from tariffs (NBC)

• NYC is still attracting the most college grads of any city in America — by far (NYP)

• Tesla stock pops as Morgan Stanley predicts shares rally on AI and robotics play (YF)

• Disney apologizes for Oscar debacle (AW)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Nasdaq Drags Stocks Down as Tariffs Loom

On Monday, the Nasdaq spearheaded a broad decline in equity markets, with the S&P 500 erasing its year-to-date gains as most sectors faltered—technology and energy stocks suffering the steepest drops.

Internationally, Asian markets largely rose, buoyed by China’s potential countermeasures to looming U.S. tariffs, while Europe gained, driven by defense stocks amid talks of increased military spending.

Bond yields slid, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.16%, a notable retreat from January’s high, and the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies.

In commodities, WTI oil prices fell as OPEC gears up to ramp up production in April.

Meanwhile, manufacturing showed resilience, with the S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI hitting 52.7—its strongest since 2022—fueled by rising prices and pre-tariff stockpiling, though the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3, tempered by weaker new orders and employment.

As tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and an extra 10% on China kick in today, markets brace for impact, though a stronger dollar or absorbed costs by manufacturers could soften inflation pressures, potentially balanced by pro-growth policies like tax cuts.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Allegro Microsystems ($ALGM) +15% after the chipmaker drew takeover interest from ON Semiconductor.

• (+) SanDisk ($SNDK) +7% because Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the computer technology company with an overweight rating.

• (–) Nvidia ($NVDA) -9% after tariff fears; chip smuggling report.

Private Dealmaking

• Genesis Energy sold its soda ash manufacturing business to WE Soda for $14.3 billion 

• Anthropic, a generative AI startup, raised $3.5 billion

• Weltower bought Amica Senior Lifestyles for $3.2 billion

• GP Energy Capital Management acquired assets from Occidental Petroleum for $900 million

• Ramp, a financial operations platform, announced a $150 million secondary share sale 

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Jump

Jump tells Larry Miller’s journey from the violent streets of West Philly in the 1960s to the highest echelons of American sports and industry. Miller wound up in jail more than once, especially as a teenager.

But he immersed himself in the educational opportunities, eventually took advantage of a Pennsylvania state education-release program offered to incarcerated people, and was able to graduate with honors from Temple University.

When revealing his gangland past caused him to lose his first major job opportunity, Miller vowed to keep it a secret. He climbed the corporate ladder with a number of companies such as Kraft Foods, Campbell’s Soup, and Jantzen, until Nike hired him to run its domestic apparel operations.

Around the time of Michael Jordan’s basketball retirement, Nike Chairman Phil Knight made Larry Miller president of the newly formed Jordan Brand. In 2007 Paul Allen convinced Miller to jump to the NBA to become president of the Portland Trailblazers, one of the first African-Americans to lead a professional sports team, before returning to Jordan Brand in 2012.

All along, Miller lived two lives: the secret of his violent past haunted him, invading his days with migraines and his sleep with nightmares of getting hauled back tojail. More than a rags-to-riches story, Jump is also a passionate appeal for criminal justice reform and expanded educational opportunities for incarcerated and formerly incarcerated people across the United States.

Drawing on his powerful personal story, as well as his vast and well-connected network, Miller plans to use Jump as a launching point to help expand such opportunities and to provide an aspirational journey for those who need hope.

“One of the most successful Black businessmen in the country, who has led Nike’s Jordan Brand from a $200M sneaker company to a $4B global apparel juggernaut, tells the remarkable story of his rise from gangland violence to the pinnacles of international business.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Need for Retirement Savings in the US

_{PRESENTED BY RYSE}

Mr. Wonderful Lost Out on $400 Million… Will You?

The Sharks passed on Ring before it sold for $1.2 billion to Amazon. Now, there’s another smart home company catching investors’ attention.

Meet RYSE—a leader in smart shade automation with $10M+ in revenue, 200% year-over-year growth, and distribution in 127 Best Buy stores (with Home Depot launching in 2025).

RYSE’s patented technology is making waves in a booming market—and you can invest at 

$1.90/share before their next growth phase.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Walk Me Through Your Resume

When a hiring manager asks, “Can you walk me through your resume?” they’re not after a dull recap of every job you’ve ever had—they want a crisp, two-minute story that proves you’re the right fit.

Start by cherry-picking skills and achievements from past roles that match the job’s core needs, showing how you’ve grown toward this opportunity, like a media planner highlighting client wins to snag a director gig.

Next, stitch your job transitions into a seamless tale—whether you chased new expertise, got tapped by a respected colleague, or pivoted industries, make it clear each move was a step toward this role, not a random hop.

Finally, spotlight what makes you stand out—maybe it’s a knack for data-driven decisions or a creative edge from another field—tying it directly to the job’s demands.

Nail this, and you’ll turn a simple question into a pitch that sticks with them long after the interview ends.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• The best job candidate a Microsoft exec ever interviewed

• How to get to bed on time

• Tips to feel more confident

• The sneaky ways parents transfer money to children

• Connection comes with a cost

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day