🍋 'Tis Rate Cut Season

Fed's Jerome Powell says it's time for rate cuts, plus Thoma Bravo colluding with landlords to raise rents, and stocks made back their August losses.

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"Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery." —Fyodor Dostoevsky

Good morning! Nvidia releases earnings this Wednesday as the whole market collectively holds its breath. Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in Paris for alleged offenses related to the messaging app. Thoma Bravo’s RealPage was sued by the U.S. for creating an illegal pricing scheme to raise rents across the country. Meta canceled its mixed-reality headset, and the largest-ever proposed grocery store merger between Kroger and Albertsons is heading to court. Only 15% of Gen-Z regularly saves a portion of their paycheck. Plus, laundry tips to make your clothes last and how redefining happiness can transform your life.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Time For Rate Cuts

‘Tis officially rate cut season! Jerome Powell sparked a stock market rally on Friday, saying the “time has come” for rate cuts.

It's been over two years since the Fed started hiking interest rates aggressively, telling investors that the Fed would fight inflation at the cost of economic pain.

Wall Street was wary that the Fed’s actions coupled with the residual effects of the pandemic recovery would sink us into a recession. But the S&P 500 has rallied over 57% since October 2022 - so it’s likely those soft landing hopes are alive.

Investors can expect a rate cut following the Fed's September 18th policy meeting, which will likely fall between a quarter-point or half-point reduction. It likely all comes down to August's job report - which will drop in a few weeks. 

The stock sell-off earlier this month may have been prompted by a cooling labor market and investors worrying the Fed had gone too far keeping rates higher. The Fed is poised to act quickly and adjust policy - and there’s hope we finally are going to make that soft landing with banks like Goldman revising their recession predictions.

Takeaway: For most of the 2010s through the pandemic, interest rates hovered near-zero, and the Fed's current benchmark interest rate of 5.25% to 5.5% is the highest it's been since 2001. Investors are predicting that rates will generally stay higher for longer. It’s anyone’s guess how many rate cuts are coming in 2024 (prediction markets are betting on three), but the Fed is moving in a strong direction, and it should be music to investors’ ears.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Nvidia gets ready to take over the stock market (again) (YF)

  • Who is Telegram founder Pavel Durov — and why was he arrested? (CNBC)

  • Thoma Bravo’s RealPage sued by US in rental collusion case (M&A)

  • Crypto industry accounts for almost half of corporate donations in 2024 election (CNBC)

  • Meta cancels mixed-reality headset (TI)

  • The largest-ever proposed grocery store merger heads to court (YF)

  • Only 15% of Gen Z regularly saves a portion of their paycheck (CNBC)

  • The reality of Kamala Harris' plan to tax unrealized capital gains (Axios)

  • Big banks are no longer afraid to confront their D.C. overseers (YF)

  • Uber to offer Cruise robotaxis (CNBC)

  • The future of the noncompete ban isn't totally bleak (Axios)

  • Why Ford believes in its $1.9 billion shift in EV strategy (CNBC)

  • Former Citigroup executive suing bank was fired for performance (Reuters)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed higher after the Fed signals a likely September rate cut.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Cava ($CAVA) +20% because of strong earnings; increased foot traffic.

  • (+) Workday ($WDAY) +12% after exceeding quarterly estimates.

  • (–) Intuit ($INTU) -7% after current-quarter outlook missed estimates.

Private Dealmaking

  • Warburg Pincus invested $100 million into Miami International

  • Setpoint, an infrastructure provider for the credit industry, raised $31 million

  • Vandria, a mitochondrial therapeutics developer, raised $30.7 million

  • Siepe, a private credit industry software provider, raised $30 million

  • Nanonets, a workflow automation platform, raised $29 million

  • Ihabitr, a commercial real estate furnishing platform, raised $27 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Messed Up Like You

Messed Up Like You is the wild but true story of a troubled man hustling his way to a better life. Honest, harrowing, and hilarious, Rick’s memoir weaves flight lessons with his journey from pizza waiter to serial entrepreneur, pilot, and athlete.

It’s flight school for everyone who dreams of soaring.

Rick Culleton was 15 when he was first arrested. Unathletic and written off by his teachers, he barely finished high school and went straight to prison.

In his 20s he hustled used cars and spiraled into debt. Rick struggled with blows that would have most of us throw in the towel. He was too scared to tell his wife when he faced yet another prison sentence, this time levied by the IRS.

Messed Up Like You is the rags-to-riches story for the rest of us. If you like true stories that inspire, that make you laugh, that compel you to act, then you’ll love Rick Culleton’s memoir.

“We’re all messed up. What matters is how we respond.”

DAILY VISUAL

More One-Person Companies Today than Before Covid

Source: Apollo

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DAILY ACUMEN

Mindset

Your mindset is the lens through which you view the world.

It colors every experience, every interaction.

A fixed mindset sees abilities as static; a growth mindset sees potential for development.

Which one are you cultivating?

Research shows that people with a growth mindset achieve more than those with a fixed mindset.

They embrace challenges, persist in the face of setbacks, and see effort as the path to mastery.

Cultivate a growth mindset.

View failures as learning opportunities.

Embrace challenges as chances to grow.

Remember, whether you think you can or you can't, you're right.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

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