🍋 Times Square Economy

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Good Morning! Yesterday, investor George Soros announced he’s transferring the reigns of his $25 billion empire to his son. We’re officially in a bull market, but companies and investors have sold shares at the fastest rate in years since April. NYC wants to charge drivers going south of 60th Street. And Silicon Valley titans are all-in on backing RFK Jr.’s 2024 campaign.

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1. Story of the Day: Times Square Economy

This summer marks three years since the pandemic turned Times Square into a ghost town. But if you look at the neighborhood’s restaurant and business sales even today, it still seems like one.

Times Square has always been an area real New Yorkers try to avoid. But it seems like everyone’s avoiding the neighborhood these days. Businesses are struggling to stay afloat and say they’re making about 40% of the money they did before the pandemic.

Times Square has always relied on office workers, tourists, and Broadway crowds to make money. But more employees in the neighborhood are working from home, Broadway shows have struggled since the pandemic, and tourists from abroad haven’t fully returned.

2023 is the first year that the number of small businesses in Manhattan is less than half of New York City's total. Manhattan has always been the city’s hub for business, but we could see more business districts like Times Square replace mom-and-pop lunch spots with the Cavas and Chipotles of the world.

Takeaway: The pandemic has had a significant impact on Manhattan’s business landscape, and now some are starting to wonder if those changes are permanent. Each NYC employee who works at home costs city businesses about $4,600 in annual sales. And three years later, the notorious business district is still figuring out its new normal.

2. Markets Rundown

The S&P 500 started a new bull market on Friday as Big Tech lifted stocks.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Sonoma Pharma ($SNOA) +44% after introducing a new product that could replace IV bags.

• (+) Braze ($BRZE) +16% after the consumer engagement platform posted a better-than-expected loss.

• (–) DocuSign ($DOCU) -10% after issuing weaker guidance.

Private Dealmaking

• Upstream Bio, an inflammation therapies developer, raised $200 million

• Upperline Health, a specialty care provider, raised $58 million

• Kate Therapeutics, a gene therapy startup, raised $51 million

• Instabase, a social platform for business data, raised $45 million

• Uncommon, a cultivated bacon startup, raised $30 million

• Carta Healthcare, a clinical data company, raised $25 million

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3. Top Reads

• IPOs show signs of life (Axios)

• Millionaires hoarding cash are betting on higher rates (CNBC)

• Big banks are about to get safer (Axios)

• Is there too much risk in Big Tech right now? (CNBC)

• What’s the secret of best stock pickers in Congress? AI (YF)

• UBS and Swiss government sign loss protection agreement over Credit Suisse takeover (CNBC)

• Why do businesses keep raising their prices? (CNN)

• Energy drinks are surging - so are their caffeine levels (NYT)

• Apollo spotted worrying signal for regional banks (BB)

• Private equity firms with clean energy focus tap ex-CEOs in talent quest (WSJ)

4. Book of the Day: Chaos Kings

There’s no doubt that our world has gotten more extreme. Pandemics, climate change, superpower rivalries, cyberattacks, political radicalization—virtually, everywhere we look there is mayhem bearing down on us, putting trillions of assets at risk.

And at least two factions have formed around how to respond. In Chaos Kings, Scott Patterson depicts how one faction, led by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, bestselling author of The Black Swan, believes humans can never see the big disaster coming.

In their view, extreme events—so-called Black Swans—while inevitable, will always catch us by surprise. In 2007, Taleb’s longtime collaborator, Mark Spitznagel, launched the Universa hedge fund, which would go on to make billions protecting investors against unforeseen chaos in the market.

A second faction, which relies on complex formulas, believes looming chaos can be detected. Chief among these risk prognosticators is Didier Sornette, a colorful French mathematician who enjoys riding his motorcycle at speeds in excess of 170 miles per hour.

When Sornette looks out from what he calls his Financial Crisis Observatory in Zurich, Switzerland, what he sees are Dragon Kings—punishing events that are unlikely to occur but have probabilities that can be predicted…and defended against.

“Deep dive into the world of billion-dollar traders and high-stakes crisis predictors who strive to turn extreme events into financial windfalls.”

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6. Daily Visual: Estimated Bond Volatilities

_{Source: Axios}

7. Daily Acumen

Embrace the uncertainty of life as an opportunity for growth and exploration.

Instead of fearing the unknown, view it as a canvas upon which you can paint your dreams and aspirations.

Embrace the journey of self-discovery, take risks, and trust that life has a way of unfolding in ways that lead you to where you are meant to be.

Embracing uncertainty fosters resilience, adaptability, and a sense of adventure.

8. Memes of the Day

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