Good Morning! JPMorgan is suing customers who allegedly stole thousands of dollars in an ATM glitch. Apple Intelligence was officially released. Boeing launched a ~$20 billion share sale to shore up its finances. OpenAI says 75% of its revenue comes from paying customers, and Estee Lauder ended its succession drama with an insider pick for CEO. Meanwhile, Starbucks is threatening to fire staff who don’t come back to office, and United is trying to overtake Delta as the world’s most profitable airline.

Plus, some renters are buying homes they'll never live in, and the man who won a $1 million lottery with a $20 bill he found on the ground.

Elf Labs is bringing iconic characters to life with advanced AR/VR tech—invest in them here.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

The Election and Your Wallet

Election Day is officially a week away, and you might be feeling a mix of stress, anxiety, and even a little disgruntled with either or both candidates.

But according to a new study by Bloomberg, regardless of who wins, your wealth is likely poised to grow. 

Investors expect slightly better stock market performance under Trump, though it's fairly close. Nearly 59% of surveyed investors anticipate the market maintaining or increasing its current gains under Trump, while 50% expect the same from a Harris win.

Harris is projected to bring some relief to housing costs, potentially lowering rents and mortgage payments. The current 30-year mortgage rate sits just over 6.5%, and survey respondents estimate it could drop to around 5.5% if Harris wins, or about 5.9% if Trump is re-elected.

Post-election clarity has historically been a rally point for stocks as well. The S&P 500 has averaged a 6.6% rise in the six months after elections, compared to 1.5% in the six months before. So, regardless of the outcome, we could see the stock market pick up further in the weeks following the election.

Takeaway: The President probably gets a little too much credit for the stock market, and it’s helpful to see that, no matter who wins next Tuesday, Americans’ housing costs and stock market gains are expected to be roughly the same. The economy is one of American voters’ largest issues this election, and while both Harris’ and Trump’s economic policies have been criticized, it’s nice to see a little bit of optimism heading into the election.

_{PRESENTED BY ELF LABS}

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• Major Launch Ahead: Three franchises debuting in 2025, backed by a team with over $6B in licensing deals.

With less than one day left, this is your chance to be part of the next frontier in tech and entertainment. Elf Labs is redefining interactive storytelling—invest now before the opportunity ends on October 30!

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• JPMorgan suing customers who stole from ATM (CNBC)

• Apple intelligence features video (NBC)

• Apple's Mac set for 'seismic shift' (Verge)

• Apple announces new iMac with M4 chip, starts at $1,299 (CNBC)

• Boeing launches up to $22B share sale (CNBC)

• DJT stock skyrockets after Trump's inflammatory MSG rally (YF)

• Robinhood jumps into election trading (CNBC)

• OpenAI CFO says 75% of its revenue comes from paying consumers (YF)

• Man wins $1 million lottery with $20 bill he found on the ground (CNN)

• Some renters are buying homes they'll never live in (Axios)

• As the housing affordability crisis deepens, Airbnb and Vrbo face backlash (CNN)

• DraftKings adds giveaways to rewards program as part of loyalty effort (Fox)

• Gold prices have surged in 2024. Here’s how to get in on the gold rush (CNN)

• Estee Lauder succession drama ends with insider pick (YF) 

• Elon Musk’s Starlink partners with luxury air carrier in Wi-Fi game-changer (Fox)

• Jamie Dimon slams US regulators: 'It's time to fight back' (YF)

• Starbucks is threatening to fire staff who don’t come back to office (BB)

• United is trying to overtake Delta as the world’s most profitable airline (CNBC)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks edge higher as investors anticipate key earnings reports and economic data: On Monday, U.S. markets closed with gains across major indexes, led by a rise in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posted modest advances, bolstered by optimism ahead of major earnings releases. Sectors including healthcare and utilities also outperformed, while energy stocks lagged as oil prices declined slightly.

Bond yields remain elevated as Fed policy looms: Treasury yields held near recent highs, with the 10-year yield around 4.9%, as investors weighed the potential for rates to remain elevated. This trend has created headwinds for rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and financials, which could face further pressure if inflation data signals additional Fed action is warranted.

Earnings season heats up: Nearly 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, with 76% beating earnings estimates. Key reports from major tech players like Apple, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to provide insights into corporate spending trends and consumer demand. Earnings from these companies could set the tone for broader market sentiment heading into November.

Economic data and Fed watch: The market is also closely monitoring economic indicators, including the October nonfarm payrolls report set to release on Friday. Economists expect job gains to slow, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.1%. This data, along with inflation updates, will be pivotal ahead of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, where policymakers will determine the next steps in their inflation-fighting agenda.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Nio ($NIO) +10% after the EV company was upgraded by Macquarie.

• (+) Aaon Inc. ($AAON) +9% after Baird upgraded the heating and ac equipment manufacturer.

• (–) Philips ($PHG) -16% after the Dutch healthcare devices manufacturer lowered its full-year revenue outlook.

Private Dealmaking

• Pacific Fusion, a nuclear fusion startup, raised $900 million

• Kivu Bioscience, an antibody-drug developer, raised $92 million

• Infinitus Systems, a healthcare call automation company, raised $51.5 million

• Simbe Robotics, a retail inventory robotics maker, raised $50 million 

• Concentric AI, a data security company, raised $45 million

• Nooks, an AI sales lead platform, raised $43 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_ELECTIONS

US Election Forecast

• Trump's holds a 22-point lead on the prediction market Kalshi, with just over six days left until the election

• Get $20 to trade the election when you deposit $100 or more. See live odds and bet now

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Empathy Economics

Through Owen Ullmann’s intimate portrait, we glean two remarkable aspects of Yellen’s approach to economics: first, her commitment to putting those on the bottom half of the economic ladder at the center of economic policy, and employing forward-looking ideas to use the power of government to create a more prosperous, productive life for everyone.

And second, her ability to maintain humanity in a Washington policy world where fierce political combat casts others as either friend or enemy, never more so than in our current age of polarization.

As Ullmann takes us through Yellen’s life and work, we clearly see her brilliance and meticulous preparation. What stands out, though, is Yellen as an icon of progress—the “Ruth Bader Ginsburg of economics”—a superb-yet-different kind of player in a cold, male-dominated profession that all too often devises policies to benefit the already well-to-do. 

With humility and compassion as her trademarks, we see the influence of Yellen’s father, a physician whose pay-what-you-can philosophy meant never turning anyone away. That compassion, rooted in her family life in Brooklyn, now extends across our entire country.

“Not only the first woman in the more than two-century history of the office, Yellen is the first person to hold all three top economic policy jobs in the United States.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Boeing Launches Stock Sale

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_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Uncertainty

“A 98% chance is dramatically different than a 100% certainty.

Certainty isn’t on the spectrum of chance. It’s a different thing altogether. If the weather report says the chance of precipitation is zero, one should never walk outside into the rain.

When you leave yourself a few points of wiggle room, you can build more trust. Low chance of rain is fundamentally different than a slight chance of rain.

At the same time, if it actually is certain, say so.”

Source: Seth's Blog

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Meditation is an essential hack for all of us

• 4 moves smart people make to get noticed at work

• How to push back against a boss who gives you too much work

• 8 mindset shifts by people who find true happiness later in life

• What you still can’t say at work

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day