Good Morning! Quantum stocks plunged yesterday after Nvidia’s CEO says we’re decades away from meaningful technology in the space. Meta will let eBay list items on Facebook marketplace, giving the online retailer’s stock a boost.

Delta is ending its eight-year partnership with Lyft, shifting instead to rival Uber. Wildfires continued to ravage LA, with estimates that preliminary damage could reach as high as $57 billion.

Massachusetts is launching new rules for private equity healthcare deals, and Carlyle thinks Big Tech is too expensive. Plus, the 20-year Treasury hit 5% for the first time, and Janet Yellen admits that the Covid stimulus might have contributed to inflation.

Home buyers (and investors) are lining up for BOXABL’s $60,000 home that’s built in a day. Don’t miss your chance to invest.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Rolex Prices Mooning

Brace yourself if you're eyeing a new Rolex with your 2024 bonus. In 2025, Rolex prices are hitting unprecedented heights, particularly for gold models.

Gold Rolex watches have surged by up to 14%, while steel models have seen a more modest average increase of about 3%. This stark difference is largely attributed to the 27% jump in gold prices over the past year, with gold reaching $2,640 per ounce by the end of 2024.

It turns out that Rolex is basically passing on the cost of gold to its customers. But according to Rolex, demand for the company’s watches isn’t really impacted by price increases, because its wealthy collectors don’t flinch at price hikes. Most Rolex customers have economic means that make them immune to economic turbulence. 

Many models, like the Submariner and Daytona, are renowned for holding or even appreciating in value, making them a sought-after asset.

In fact, higher prices have only amplified the appeal of Rolex watches for some buyers, solidifying their status as exclusive, desirable investments. With gold prices remaining elevated and strong demand persisting, Rolex prices are unlikely to decrease anytime soon.

Takeaway: With the crypto and stock markets riding high after a blockbuster year, it’s no wonder luxury watches are seeing record demand. The combination of booming portfolios and rising flex culture has everyone eyeing luxury watches. Here’s to hoping your bonus keeps up with the price hikes… and that you don’t have to explain to HR why you’re on a six-month waitlist for a Daytona.

_{PRESENTED BY BOXABL}

How to Build a Home in 4 Hours

The U.S. faces a 2.3M home shortage, driving demand for affordable, efficient housing. BOXABL aims to transform home construction with factory-built homes produced in just four hours and installed in under a day.

BOXABL has received 190,000+ Casita reservations* and gained attention from America’s largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton.

The BOXABL assembly-line delivers fully equipped homes, offering a scalable solution to housing challenges. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of BOXABL!

Invest now before shares sell out again for just $0.80/share.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Quantum stocks plunge after Nvidia CEO says computers are 15-30 years away (CNBC)

• Musk, Ramaswamy unveil the DOGE full-time, salaried roles they're trying to fill (Fox)

• $52 billion cost would rank LA fires among worst US disasters (BB)

• Delta links its loyalty program to Uber, ending partnership with Lyft (CNBC)

• Meta tests eBay listings in Facebook marketplace (Verge)

• Massachusetts enacts new curbs on private equity in healthcare (BB)

• Carlyle cautions on Big Tech, likes exceptionally cheap Europe (BB)

• 20-year Treasury gives grim warning on what could be to come (YF)

• Trump could declare national economic emergency to justify tariffs (CNBC)

• Arctos co-founder on the future of private equity in sports (Axios)

• 41% of companies worldwide plan to reduce workforces by 2030 due to AI (CNN)

• Janet Yellen says Covid stimulus may have contributed to inflation (CNBC)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Rise Amid Higher Bond Yields

S&P 500 finished higher on Wednesday, led by large-cap stocks. Sector performance was broadly positive, with health care and materials posting the largest gains. Asian markets were mixed, as China's yuan dropped to a 16-month low versus the U.S. dollar due to lower bond yields and tariff concerns.

In Europe, markets were mostly lower following disappointing economic confidence data for December. Meanwhile, WTI oil dropped on reports of higher U.S. fuel inventories, while the U.S. dollar continued to rise against major currencies.

Bond Yields Edge Lower

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.68%, easing slightly after briefly touching 4.72% earlier in the day, its highest since 2023. The benchmark yield is now more than 100 basis points above its September 2024 low, reflecting diminished expectations for Fed rate cuts amid slowing disinflation.

With core PCE inflation hovering at 2.8%, above the Fed's 2% target, we expect the Fed to cut rates gradually, supported by moderating shelter inflation throughout 2025.

New Labor Market Data Shows Slower Job Growth, Fewer Unemployment Claims

The ADP employment survey reported 122,000 new private sector jobs in December, below expectations of 140,000and the monthly average of 150,000 for the past year. However, annual pay increased by 4.6% year-over-year, reflecting steady wage growth.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 201,000, beating estimates of 215,000, while continuing claims ticked up to 1.87 million, slightly above expectations of 1.85 million.

These figures suggest a resilient labor market that is normalizing, as hiring slows but layoffs remain limited. These trends are supportive of economic growth and align with the soft-landing narrative.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) eBay Inc ($EBAY) +10% after Meta will allow listings on Facebook Marketplace.

• (–) Edison International ($EIX) -10% because the California-based utility company is exposed to California wildfire aftermath.

• (–) Rigetti Computing ($RGTQ) -45% after Nvidia CEO warns useful quantum computing is decades away.

Private Dealmaking

• Cintas offered to buy UniFirst for $5.3 billion

• Paychex bought Paycor HCM for $4.1 billion

• Footer Foods bought Simple Mills for $795 million

• Transcarent bought Accolade for $621 million

• Whatnot, a live-shopping platform, raised $265 million

• Inari, a seed breeding company, raised $144 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Uncertainty Solution

This is not a typical investment book. It is an experiential guide on cultivating the mindset and behavior necessary to weather inherently uncertain and unpredictable markets. It doesn’t just tell you how to invest but how to think better about investing.

Referencing studies on psychology, decision making, and investment behavior, Jennings provides a no-nonsense analysis of the financial markets and a road map to navigating its inevitable twists and turns. 

Jennings uses mental models to create a latticework of wisdom that will help you evaluate investment advice and learn better behavior in the face of uncertainty. To name a few: ignore expert predictions, be wary of stories, and try to invest like a dead person.

An engaging dive into investing psychology and best practices, The Uncertainty Solution is an authoritative, accessible guide for both lay investors and professionals inundated with financial news and data.

Read this book to improve your thinking about investing, practice better investment behavior, and ultimately, have more money.

“A clear-eyed and page-turning attempt to demystify the human element of investing."

_{DAILY VISUAL}

America's Most Congested Cities

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Exercise

The gold standard for maintaining health is 150 minutes of moderate cardio (like walking) or 75 minutes of vigorous cardio (like running) weekly, plus two strength-training sessions. Break it into manageable chunks—short bursts of activity count, too. 

Feeling ambitious? Double it for extra benefits: 300 minutes of moderate cardio or 150 minutes of vigorous cardio weekly. Mix and match intensities—one minute of vigorous cardio equals two minutes of moderate.

Strength training involves two sessions per week targeting major muscle groups. Whether it’s lifting weights or bodyweight exercises like pushups, aim for three sets of 8-10 reps.

Too much exercise? Listen to your body. Gradually increase intensity to avoid burnout or injury. Even small steps make a difference—doing something is always better than nothing.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 4 daily habits of truly happy people

• How talking to strangers improves your well-being

• Why doesn’t advice work?

• The psychology of strategic relationships

• How to manage your time like a lazy genius

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day