Good Morning! Trump gave U.S. automakers a one-month tariff break and criticized Canada’s fentanyl efforts. China’s U.S. embassy warned, “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” signaling an increasingly aggressive stance toward the U.S.

Novo Nordisk NVO ( ▲ 1.47% ) slashed Wegovy prices for cash buyers. Wall Street banks fear recession signals, the IRS plans to halve its workforce by 2025, and 401(k) withdrawals hit a record high.

Plus: Defense stocks could boom under Trump, Apple dropped a cheaper MacBook even with looming tariffs, and Goldman breaks down tariff war winners and losers.

Pass your security exams and get promoted faster with Knopman Marks, Wall Street’s trusted exam prep program.

This month’s Buysiders is live—deep dives on Celsius’s $1.8B Alani Nu and Blackstone’s $5.7B Safe Harbor deals. Read here.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Private Equity Shrinks the Game

The $4.7 trillion private equity industry just did something it hasn’t done in decades: it shrank.

For the first time since Bain started tracking AUM in 2005, assets under management declined 2% in 2024. Not even the 2008 financial crisis managed to break private equity’s growth streak.

Firms are sitting on aging, unsold deals, unable to cash out. The usual buy, sell, return cash, raise new funds cycle has stalled, leaving private equity firms struggling to return capital to investors. In Bain’s words, “there’s more money coming out of the cigar box than going in.”

That means liquidity is at rock-bottom levels, with distributions to investors sliced in half compared to historical norms. In 2024, just 11% of net assets were paid out, the lowest level in over a decade.

This liquidity crunch is now hitting pension funds and endowments, which depend on private equity cash flows to meet their obligations. With money locked up in assets that won’t sell, fundraising collapsed 23% to $401 billion, the weakest haul since 2020.

To make matters worse, management fees are under pressure. The rise of co-investments—where sovereign wealth funds and pensions bypass traditional PE firms to invest directly—means less fee revenue. Plus, low-fee evergreen funds from Blackstone and Apollo are eating into the traditional 2% management fee model.

Takeaway: The only thing getting leveraged on the buyside these days is patience. Private equity isn’t dead, but the glory days of easy fundraising and effortless exits are over. Bain thinks it’ll take at least 3-4 years to unclog this $3 trillion backlog. For now, expect more belt-tightening, lower fees, and restless investors wondering why their cash is still locked up.

_{PRESENTED BY KNOPMAN MARKS}

Wall Street’s Unfair Advantage For Security Exams

Don’t be like your competition, pulling an all-nighter cramming for the security exam.

Instead, gain the upper hand and study with Knopman Marks, the exam program with the fastest prep-to-pass rate in the industry. 

Trusted by Wall Street’s top firms, Knopman Marks isn’t merely exam preparation–it’s elite career training for high-performers: 

• Equips professionals with proven learning + retention skills

• Taught by industry vets who’ve been-there, done-that

• Personalized training, tailored to any busy schedule 

Ace your SIE, Series 7, 24, 63, 65, 66, 79 and more.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• China says it is ready for 'any type of war' with US (BBC)

• Tariff twitches causing wild stock market swings (Axios)

• Trump tells Trudeau fentanyl crackdown 'not good enough' to stop tariffs (Fox)

• Novo Nordisk cuts Wegovy prices in half (CNBC)

• Private equity firm Roark nears $1bn deal for Dave’s Hot Chicken (PEN)

• Wall Street banks say markets are flashing recession risk (YF)

• IRS plans to halve its workforce (AP)

• Early 401(k) raids hit record high (WSJ)

• American businesses are getting worried about hiring new employees (CNN)

• Goldman wins rare solo role on $19 billion port deal (YF)

• Private employers added fewer jobs than expected in February 2025 (CNBC)

• U.S. defense stocks are getting buy ratings (YF)

• Target faces 40-day boycott for rolling back DEI initiatives (Fox)

• Popular restaurant chain considering closing dozens of ‘underperforming’ locations (Fox)

• Seven & i to replace CEO (CNBC)

• Mexican president's first words after sweeping tariffs take effect (Fox)

• Tech giants have pledged $1T in investment so far (YF)

• Apple unveils MacBook Air models with $100 price cut despite tariffs (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs highlights tariff wars winners and losers (Fox)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Rally on Auto Tariff Break and German Spending Boost

On Wednesday, equity markets roared back as the U.S. granted a one-month tariff exemption on autos from Canada and Mexico, lifting the S&P 500 by 1.1% and the Nasdaq by 1.5%.

Asia climbed, and Europe soared, fueled by Germany’s plan to exclude military and defense spending from fiscal caps and launch a €500 billion infrastructure fund, pending a vote next week.

U.S. economic data was mixed: ADP private payrolls added a tepid 77,000 jobs in February (vs. 145,000 expected), hinting at caution amid trade uncertainty, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 53.5, beating forecasts and signaling resilience.

Bond yields edged up, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.28%.

Despite tariff jitters—25% on Canada/Mexico (10% on energy), 10% more on China, with retaliation from Canada, China, and soon Mexico—fundamentals shine: S&P 500 earnings eye 18% Q4 growth and 12% in 2025, backed by solid labor markets and rising real incomes.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (est. 160,000) will keep focus on growth, but for now, markets shrug off volatility with diversified footing.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) General Motors ($GM) +7% after Trump paused tariffs on the Big Three automakers.

• (+) CrowdStrike ($CRWD) -6% after the cybersecurity company issued a disappointing earnings forecast.

• (–) Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF) -9% because the retailer predicts a tariff hit.

Private Dealmaking

• KKR sold Seiyu, a supermarket chain, for $2.55 billion

• Jazz Pharmaceutics acquired Chimerix for $935 million

• Epirus, an anti-drone systems developer, raised $250 million

• Peregrine, a decision support platform, raised $190 million

• Quantexa, a decision intelligence platform, raised $175 million

• Darwinbox, an HR platform, raised $140 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Big Bets

Rajiv J. Shah is no stranger to pulling off the impossible, from helping vaccinate 900 million children at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to a high-pressure race against the clock to stop the spread of Ebola.

His secret? A big bets philosophy—the idea that seeking to solve problems rather than make incremental improvements can attract the unlikely partners with the power and know-how to achieve transformational change. Part career sweeping memoir, part inspirational playbook, Big Bets offers a master class in decision-making, leadership, and changing the world one bet at a time.

Shah animates his strategic insights with vivid behind-the-scenes stories, memorable conversations with household names that helped shape his approach to creating change, and his own personal growth as an Indian-American from an immigrant family looking for a way to belong. 

He distills his battle-tested strategies for creating change, arguing that big bets have a surprising advantage over cautious ones: a bold vision can attract support, collaborations, and fresh ideas from key players who might otherwise be resistant.

Throughout the book, Shah traces his unlikely path to the Rockefeller Foundation across a changing world and through some of the most ambitious, dramatic global efforts to create a better world.

“Encouraging…Uplifting...Meeting apparently insurmountable goals requires thinking big…this will inspire.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?

Adjustment costs associated with changing trade policy

_{PRESENTED BY MOSAIC}

Your Next LBO Model Done in 5 Minutes

Time is money. If you’re still manually building LBO models from scratch, you’re wasting both.

Mosaic automates LBOs so you can focus on what truly matters: analysis and closing deals.

With Mosaic, you get:

• CIM to LBO in minutes - eliminating hours of manual work

• Error-free, 100% accurate models with Excel math verification

• Institutional memory on past deals to identify trends

Why spend hours when you can model an entire deal in just 5 minutes?

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Success

Forget the myth that success is a young person’s game—some of the biggest wins come later, if you play it right. The trick?

Don’t ditch your calling, even if it’s a nagging whisper you sidelined for a steady gig—keep it alive as a hobby until the moment strikes.

Hard work is non-negotiable; talent’s overrated when most give up, but you don’t—every effort’s a shot at brilliance, no expiration date attached.

Be ready to change—ditch the soul-sucking crowd and rewrite your script, because no one’s handing you the plot twist.

And network like it’s oxygen—those loose weak ties beyond your inner circle can bridge you to fresh opportunities.

So, if you’re staring down a midlife slump, flip it into a launchpad—late bloomers don’t just catch up, they rewrite the game, proving the best act starts when you decide it does.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 5 reasons your boss is holding you back

• How sleep washes toxic gunk out of your brain

• Airbnb CEO's daily routine

• How getting a sleep study can change your life

• How to combat layoff anxiety

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day