Good Morning and Happy Friday! The Fed cut rates by 25bps yesterday, with prediction markets pricing another cut next month. Powell said he wouldn’t step down if Trump asked him to. The world’s 10 richest gained $64 billion from Trump’s re-election, and it may not be over… Evercore forecasts Trump will drive the S&P 500 to 6,600 by mid-2025 (a 10% gain from here). Carlyle’s CEO expects a post-election surge in dealmaking. And climate stocks have slumped post-election.

Plus, Caroline Ellison has reported to prison to begin her 2-year sentence, and Canada has ordered the dissolution of TikTok's Canadian business.

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_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Private Equity’s $85B Spree

Dealmaking has been in a slump for the last couple of years, but 2024 is changing that as private equity firms are back in action and opening their checkbooks.

So far, private equity has poured almost $85 billion into public U.S. companies, a 50% increase from last year and the highest amount since 2010. With interest rates stabilizing and record levels of dry powder on hand, firms are flexing their buying power, with Wall Street investment banks eager to support the surge in deals.

The recent election results bring clarity to the M&A landscape, and with expectations of interest rates dropping, momentum could pick up even more heading into 2025. Carlyle’s CEO hinted at this yesterday, expecting a post-election boost in dealmaking.

Tech, especially software, remains a top target for private equity, thanks to its steady growth and reliable cash flow. Deals like KKR’s $4.8 billion purchase of Instructure and Blackstone’s $8.4 billion Smartsheet buyout are setting the tone. Just this week, major deals like Blackstone’s $4 billion acquisition of Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. were announced.

Takeaway: With inflation cooling and the Fed poised to cut rates, private equity firms have little reason to sit on their cash any longer. We could be on the brink of a blockbuster year for Wall Street, with dealmaking back in full swing and investment banks set to rake in the fees. The era of no staffings and checking memes on your phone during work hours may be over!

_{PRESENTED BY HEBBIA}

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Fed cuts interest rates for second time this year against election backdrop (Axios)

• Fed chair Powell won't resign if Trump asks (Axios)

• Prediction markets are pricing another rate cut in December (Kalshi)

• Traders see good chance the Fed cuts again in December then skips in January (CNBC)

• Carlyle CEO expects post-election dealmaking surge (Axios)

• The world’s 10 richest people got $64 billion richer from Trump’s reelection (CNN)

• Nissan to cut 9,000 jobs globally after sinking to a loss (Guardian)

• E.l.f. shares soar as cosmetics retailer raises guidance, posts 40% sales gain (CNBC)

• Canada orders TikTok's Canadian business to be dissolved but won't block app (NPR)

• Patagonia's profit giveaway hasn't been stress-free (CNBC)

• Climate tech stock market shares tumble after Trump's win (Axios)

• FTX fraudster Caroline Ellison reports to Connecticut prison to begin sentence (CNBC)

• Warner Bros. Discovery added 7.2 million Max subscribers in the third quarter (CNBC)

• US worker productivity rises moderately in third quarter; labor costs elevated (YF)

• Qualcomm pops on chipmaker’s earnings and revenue beat (CNBC)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Close Higher on Fed Day: Major equity markets continued their strong momentum, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs. Communication services and technology stocks led gains, showing a clear risk-on sentiment. Bond yields fell, reversing a recent upward trend.

Internationally, China’s markets rose on better-than-expected October exports, while Europe also climbed after a 0.25% rate cut from the Bank of England. Oil prices increased due to potential new sanctions on Iran and Venezuela post-election.

Fed Cuts Rates for the Second Time: The Federal Reserve cut its target range for the fed funds rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.5% - 4.75% as anticipated. The FOMC noted progress toward balanced goals for employment and inflation.

Bond markets are pricing in expectations for a further 0.75% in cuts through 2025. We expect the Fed to continue easing rates, although at a slower pace, aiming for a soft landing to support economic growth and corporate profits.

Labor Market Update: Jobless claims ticked up slightly to 221,000, indicating a labor market that is gradually cooling. This normalization supports a "soft landing" scenario, as slowing wage growth typically eases inflation in the services sector.

Additionally, labor productivity rose 2.2% in Q3, reinforcing growth through higher production per hour worked.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Zillow ($Z) +24% after announcing a strong earnings report.

• (+) Lyft ($LYFT) +23% after the rideshare announced strong outlook; a sales beat.

• (–) Match Group ($MTCH) -18% after the dating app parent company missed earnings.

Private Dealmaking

• Cencora sold Retina Consultants of America for $5.1 billion

• Blackstone bought Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. for $4 billion

• GHO Capital and Ampersand Capital bought Avid Bioservices for $1.1 billion

• DeepRoute, a self-driving tech developer, raised $100 million

• Overflow, a charitable giving platform, raised $20 million

• Glint Solar, a solar installation planning SaaS, raised $8 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH}

Real Estate Digest

Mortgage rates inched up again this week. Purchase demand continues to be sensitive to mortgage rates in the current market environment. Purchase applications have dropped 10% since rates began to slowly rise beginning in October.

But with the election outcome now settled, both the markets and consumers have a clear picture of what the next four years will bring. This kind of certainty should help boost confidence and get things moving again in the market.

Latest News

• New Development vs. Existing Homes: Which is the Better Buy

• The SALT Deduction Fight Is Coming Back

• Rents Set to Roar Back as Apartment Demand Surges After Building Boom

• The Average Age of US Homebuyers Jumps to 56

• The Five Housing Markets to Watch in 2025– Especially If You’re an Investor

New Listings

• 285 Lafayette Street Apt: 2B New York, NY: 4 Bed / 3.5 Bath - $10,950,000

• 75 1st Ave. Apt: PHA New York, NY : 3 Bed / 3 Bath - $5,150,000 

• 50 Eveningside Dr Milford, CT : 4 Bed / 4.5 Bath  -  $2,900,000

• 111 Manitou Drive King City, York, Canada: 6 Bed / 7 Bath - $8,880,000

• Tower West Apt: 252 London, United Kingdom: 4 Bed / 4 Bath - $6,928,590

• Estr. Paço do Lumiar 2 Lisboa Portugal: 6 Bed / 8 Bath - $5,457,000 

Fill out this form if you're looking to buy, sell, rent or invest.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Stoic Path to Wealth

In The Stoic Path to Wealth, Darius Foroux combines the timeless wisdom of Stoic philosophy with practical insights on financial success and wealth-building. Drawing from the teachings of prominent Stoic philosophers like Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, and Epictetus, Foroux explores how principles such as discipline, resilience, and mindfulness can be applied to modern financial decisions.

The book emphasizes the importance of inner control, self-discipline, and long-term planning over impulsive choices and instant gratification. Foroux argues that wealth is as much about mindset as it is about money, urging readers to cultivate virtues like patience, integrity, and gratitude.

Through real-world applications and anecdotes, he illustrates how adopting a Stoic approach to wealth can help navigate market volatility, manage personal finances responsibly, and build lasting financial security.

Ultimately, The Stoic Path to Wealth guides readers toward not only achieving material prosperity but also finding a deeper sense of fulfillment and stability that transcends financial gains, aligning wealth with a life of purpose and meaning.

“Darius has a unique ability to turn complex ideas into simple stories.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

The US Fiscal Position

_{PRESENTED BY OPTIFINO}

How Permanent Life Insurance Can Build Wealth, Cover Estate Tax, and More

Permanent life insurance (PLI) is more than just a safety net—it’s a tool for growing wealth accessible in your lifetime, deferring taxes, and enhancing your estate plan. But here’s the catch: most agents push policies based on their own preferences, not your goals.

In this live AMA, Optifino will break down how different PLI options can work for you, whether you’re looking to:

• Compound wealth with tax-deferred growth

• Secure tax-free income for retirement

• Create liquidity for real estate or investment opportunities

• Reduce or eliminate estate taxes

• Cover long-term care costs

Join other Short Squeez readers in learning how to align your insurance policy with your financial goals.*

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Startup Success

Sujal Patel, CEO of Nautilus Biotechnology, emphasizes that startup success isn’t about perfect plans—it’s about perseverance, adaptability, and trusting your gut.

True product-market fit isn’t just about a good idea; it’s about creating something compelling enough to overcome customer inertia.

Patel believes in "hands-on humility"—being willing to do any job, from IT fixes to marketing, until the company can hire specialized talent.

Great leaders tell compelling stories and focus on the bigger picture instead of sweating the small stuff.

Most importantly, Patel advises: trust your instincts and stay true to your vision.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• The key thing to feel happier at work

• The benefits of walking 30 days in a row

• 5 rules every rich person uses to make money

• How to deal with a colleague who doesn’t respect rules

• 5 green flags in long-term relationships

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day