Good Morning! October’s inflation rate met expectations at 2.6%. Polymarket’s CEO had his house raided by the FBI. GrubHub was sold for $650 million, a steep drop from its $7.3 billion valuation just four years ago. Spirit Airlines' stock plummeted 60% amid bankruptcy rumors. Amazon pulled the plug on its secret fertility-tracking project. Bitcoin surged past $90k, and the U.S. debt market saw its biggest single-day raise since 2016.

Plus, you need to make $108k a year to afford a home in America, Citadel is warning its recruiters not to pitch fake jobs, and Klarna filed for an IPO.

The most important investing data you’ve been missing? Find it on Carbon Finance, the visual investing newsletter. Join 20,000+ investors today.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Private Equity Boom

After a few years of deal stagnation and disappointing investor payouts, private equity investors are finally putting their cash to work. Megafunds like KKR and Ares are forecasting record-breaking years ahead, supported by a surge in investments and fundraising.

Private equity thrives on market cycles and capital availability. And it looks like things are trending for a strong close to 2024, and a great 2025.

Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, described this period as the “most fun” phase of the investment cycle. Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to accelerate dealmaking and attract capital, initiating what Schwarzman calls the “virtuous cycle” that fuels the business.

Blackstone is sitting on $171.6 billion of dry powder and has invested more than $50 billion in the second and third quarters alone. The firm made headlines with its $16 billion acquisition of AirTrunk and an $8.4 billion buyout of Smartsheet.

KKR has deployed $61 billion and raised $87 billion through September, doubling their figures from last year. Meanwhile, Ares is on track for a record fundraising year, anticipating $85 billion in commitments across its funds.

Exits are also making a comeback for private equity. IPOs and M&A activity are heating up, with IPOs raising $24.7 billion this year, compared to $16.7 billion in 2023.

With $1.3 trillion in dry powder and 10,000 private companies poised for deals, a strong M&A and IPO resurgence is set for 2025.

Takeaway: With the dust of the recent elections settling, market uncertainty is fading, injecting new energy into the space. As Carlyle’s CEO put it, pro-business policies and a declining rate environment could be game-changers. And let’s face it, nothing fuels optimism quite like seeing PE giants ready to spend like it’s Black Friday at the stock exchange.

_{PRESENTED BY CARBON FINANCE}

Invest Like A Billionaire, Without Spending A $1

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But what if you don’t have that?

Then you should be reading Carbon Finance: the visual investing newsletter.

It’s simple — sign up, and each week, get top investing infographics, insights, and insider trades delivered right to your inbox, all for free.

Packed with clear, visual summaries, you’ll have all the market intel you need without the noise. 

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations (CNBC)

• FBI raids home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Axios)

• GrubHub sells to delivery startup for $650 million (YF)

• Spirit Airlines shares plunge on bankruptcy speculation (CNN)

• Amazon shuts down secret project to develop fertility tracker (CNBC)

• Banks flood US debt market in biggest single-day raise since 2016 (YF)

• Citadel warns recruiters: don't pitch fake jobs (YT)

• You need to make $108,000 to afford a home in America (CNN)

• Bitcoin surges past $90K mark for first time (Axios)

• Rivian-Volkswagen joint venture deal rises to up to $5.8 billion (CNBC)

• Spotify projects first full year of profitability ever (Axios)

• What Musk and Ramaswamy could abolish in name of government efficiency (YF)

• Buy now, pay later provider Klarna files for U.S. IPO (CNBC)

• Bluesky’s user base has doubled in the past 90 days. Is it a mass exodus from X? (CNN)

• AMD to lay off 4% of workforce, or about 1,000 employees (CNBC)

• Inflationary embers still burn from higher rents (Axios)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Finish Near Flat After Inflation Data: U.S. equity markets barely budged on Wednesday as consumer inflation data aligned with expectations. Leading the gains in the S&P 500 were energy, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks, while tech lagged, causing Nasdaq to underperform.

Small-cap stocks had an initial rally that fizzled, with the Russell 2000 ending down about 0.6%. Overseas, both Asian and European markets were mostly lower. Bond yields were mixed, with the 2-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.27% while the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.46%.

Inflation Comes In As Expected: October's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% for the month, bringing the year-over-year increase to 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw a 0.3% rise for the month and 3.3% annually. This marks three consecutive months of 0.3% gains in core CPI, pushing the annualized rate up to 3.6% over the past three months.

While inflation is likely on a cooling trend, the path may be somewhat choppy. Markets currently see an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, reflecting expectations for gradual policy easing.

Consumer Spending Takes the Spotlight: With inflation data behind us, markets now turn their focus to consumer spending, with October retail sales data set for release Friday. Analysts expect retail sales to rise by a solid 0.3% month-over-month, slightly lower than September’s 0.4% gain. Control-group retail sales, which exclude volatile spending categories, are also forecasted to increase by 0.3%.

Despite higher borrowing costs, consumer spending has remained resilient—a key driver of recent U.S. economic strength. Favorable factors like easing labor market pressures and healthy household finances create a supportive environment, likely fueling continued economic expansion.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Rivian ($RIVN) +14% after Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the EV maker.

• (+) Spotify ($SPOT) +11% after projecting its first full year of profitability.

• (–) Spirit Airlines ($SAVE) -59% after the airline preps a bankruptcy filing.

Private Dealmaking

• Coterra Energy bought Permian Basin assets for $2.95 billion 

• BioNTech of Germany will buy Biotheus for $800 million

• Wonder Group bought Grubhub for $650 million

• Warburg Pincus will invest $525 million into M2B Dental

• Blackstone invested $300 million into Brigade Capital  

• Writer, a generative AI platform, raised $200 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Narrative Economics

Stories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific.

In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously.

Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls "narrative economics"—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events.

The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics.

In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.

“An eloquent and accessible exposition of a seductive idea.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

DOGE to $1?

_{PRESENTED BY PORTFOLIOIQ}

VCs: Find Hidden Trends In Your Pitch Decks

Get this: It takes roughly 120 evaluations for each investment that comes across your desk. For the average VC, that’s thousands of pitch decks every year! 

So what if you could extract and organize this data at scale, with just a few clicks?

PortfolioIQ’s Pitch Deck Intelligence pulls data from the pitch decks you receive to cue you into insights like market pulse across sectors, valuation multiples, growth benchmarking and more, effortlessly. 

See unique trends in your deal flow in minutes (no weekend work required).

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

More Than Just a Walk

Nature isn't just a beautiful backdrop; it's an incredible tool for mental well-being. When you walk among trees, dip into cold water, or soak in the morning sunlight, your body and mind respond in powerful ways.

Cold water stimulates your body, reducing fatigue and lowering stress hormones like cortisol. The scents of pine needles, the calming hues of green and yellow, and the sound of flowing water all work together to help you relax and restore your mental focus.

Spending time among diverse plants and trees also boosts your mood and enriches your body's natural microbiome, which plays a key role in mental health. Water elements, with their gentle sounds and rippling movements, are especially effective at helping your mind shift away from worries to a more restful state.

To truly recharge, finish your time in nature with a view of the sky at night. Experiencing the vastness of the universe triggers awe—a state that lowers stress, calms the mind, and helps you feel connected to something greater. Nature's gifts are simple, but they offer profound benefits.

Nature is indeed free, and it may be the best kind of medicine available.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Make character count in hiring and promoting

• The cost of the American Dream in 2024

• 7 body language tricks to be more confident when talking in public

• Does Vitamin C actually help when you’re sick?

• The best sleep aids recommended by experts

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day