🍋 PE Covid Bets Unraveling

Plus: Trump says Powell's termination 'cannot come fast enough,' Blackstone CEO sounding the alarm on tariffs, Hertz is up 126% in two days, and UNH crashed 23%.

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"Don't let the hope of finding a better way prevent you from starting down the best path you know of right now.” — James Clear

Good Morning and Happy Friday! Trump called for rate cuts, and said Powell's termination 'cannot come fast enough.' Blackstone had a strong Q1 but warned tariffs could hurt dealmaking.

UnitedHealthcare stock crashed 23% after disastrous earnings. Google could be broken up after a judge ruled that it has an online advertising monopoly, and Hertz continued its post-Ackman rally, now up 126% in two days.

Plus: Netflix posted a major earnings beat and a Neuralink rival earned FDA approval for brain implants.

Zillow’s founders are back, this time unlocking luxury vacation homes across the globe. Here’s your chance to invest in a new model of luxury living. Learn more about their raise.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

PE Covid Bets Unraveling

Five years after private equity piled into “lockdown-proof” assets, those bets are starting to unravel. From e-commerce rollups to bikes and staycations, many of the pandemic-era plays are underperforming as consumer behavior normalizes and interest rates rise.

In 2021, BlackRock backed Amazon aggregators Razor Group and SellerX, betting on booming online shopping. Today, SellerX has been taken over in a debt restructuring, while Razor is surviving on emergency capital infusions.

Bikes were another hot theme. KKR acquired Dutch cycling group Accell for $1.6 billion at a 25% premium. That bet has gone south fast, KKR has injected over $250 million to keep it afloat, while lenders wrote off 40% of their loans. Other bike brands like VanMoof and Orange Mountain Bikes have already gone bankrupt.

Even staycations didn’t stick. Platinum Equity’s investment in European vacation rental firm Awaze is under pressure as international travel rebounds. Revenue is down, debt is trading at a ~15% discount, and the firm needed a €190 million equity injection.

Takeaway: PE firms rushed into COVID-era themes that felt like no-brainers at the time but many of those bets are now under water. What looked like a play on the “new normal” turned out to be a short-lived trade in a low-rate world. Turns out, the only thing these COVID darlings were immune to was due diligence.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Blackstone Q1 profit rises but CEO warns of tariff disruption (YF)

  • Trump blasts Jerome Powell, saying his termination cannot come fast enough (CNN)

  • Wall Street has wish list for the SEC's new boss (YF)

  • Judge finds Google holds illegal online ad tech monopolies (CNBC)

  • UnitedHealth stock craters on 'unusual and unacceptable' results (YF)

  • Mortgage rates climb to highest level in 2 months as Trump tarrifs rock markets (CNN)

  • 23andMe bankruptcy under congressional investigation (CNBC)

  • Ares says cash-hungry private equity investors face big wait (BB)

  • OpenAI in talks to buy coding assistant startup for more than $3B (Axios)

  • Blackstone urges swift end to tariff turmoil as deal exits slow (BB)

  • Netflix revenue soars 13% to $10.5B (CNBC)

  • Blackstone to debut credit fund for everyday investors in May (BB)

  • Tax attorneys say IRS has become a 'zombie' as agency cuts staff (CNBC)

  • Neuralink rival earns FDA approval (CNBC)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

  • Equity markets mixed: S&P 500 and Russell 2000 up slightly, Nasdaq and Dow down.

  • S&P 500 sectors mostly up, led by energy and consumer staples; health care and tech lagged.

  • Asian markets rose overnight; European markets dipped after ECB cut policy rate to 2.25%.

  • Initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000, below expectations, signaling low layoffs.

  • March housing starts slightly below forecasts; 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.33%.

  • Job growth steady at 152,000 average monthly in 2025, down from 168,000 in 2024.

  • International developed large-cap stocks up 6% in 2025, outperforming S&P 500’s 10% drop.

  • Emerging-market stocks down just 1%, beating U.S. equities.

  • Diversification shines: global allocations help smooth volatility amid rotating market leadership.

Reported Earnings

  • UnitedHealth Group: Missed Q1 estimates with $7.20 adjusted EPS on $109.58 billion revenue; cut 2025 guidance to $26-$26.50 EPS from $29.50-$30.

  • JPMorgan Chase: Beat estimates with strong trading revenue; EPS and revenue topped forecasts.

  • Goldman Sachs: Exceeded expectations, driven by fixed income and equities trading gains.

  • Morgan Stanley: Surpassed analyst projections with robust trading and wealth management results.

  • Citibank: Reported higher-than-expected EPS, boosted by trading and investment banking.

Upcoming Earnings

  • No major earnings reports are scheduled for today as stock and bond markets are closed for Good Friday.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Hertz ($HTZ) +44% after Pershing Square increased its position to 19.8%.

  • (+) Eli Lilly ($LLY) +14% because the company’s obesity pill showed positive results.

  • (–) UnitedHealth ($UNH) -22% after the insurance giant posted disappointing Q1 results.

Private Dealmaking

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BOOK OF THE DAY

The Next Day

Transitions are moments in which we step out of our familiar surroundings and into a new landscape―a space that, for many people, is shadowed by confusion, fear, and indecision.

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In this book, Melinda will reflect, for the first time in print, on some of the most significant transitions in her own life, including becoming a parent, the death of a dear friend, and her departure from the Gates Foundation.

The stories she tells illuminate universal lessons about loosening the bonds of perfectionism, helping friends navigate times of crisis, embracing uncertainty, and more.

Each one of us, no matter who we are or where we are in life, is headed toward transitions of our own.

With her signature warmth and grace, Melinda candidly shares stories of times when she was in need of wisdom and shines a path through the open space stretching out before us all.

“In a rare window into some of her life’s pivotal moments, Melinda French Gates draws from previously untold stories to offer a new perspective on encountering transitions.”

DAILY VISUAL

Median Mortgage Payment Up 89% in 5 Years

Source: Charlie Bilello

 

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DAILY ACUMEN

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

  • 25 'short rules' for young people to make life happier, uncomplicated and successful

  • 7 morning habits to energize you

  • 9 ways to be good to yourself starting today 

  • How costly is a resume gap for executives?

  • 7 business lessons on leadership, adaptability, and resilience

  • Upgrade your morning investing insights with Opening Bell Daily

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.

🏠 Real Estate Newsletter – City Squeez: Latest news and exclusive listings for those looking to buy, rent, or invest in real estate around the world. Sign up here.

📚 Courses: Level up with our excel, modeling, and private equity courses. View offerings.

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