Good Morning! Jamie Dimon thinks a recession is now the most likely outcome, but Goldman did a U-turn on its U.S. recession call (just 73 minutes after making it). Scott Bessent thinks the economy is still in good shape, even before yesterday’s rally. The Fed is warning consumers to brace for higher tariff-driven prices by June, and Marc Rowan says it’s time for the U.S. to reset its trade policy.

Blackstone is planning an $11 billion property buying spree in Europe, and Andreessen Horowitz is looking to raise $20 billion for a new AI fund.

Plus: The bond market plunged before Trump reversed tariffs, Google is paying some of its top AI engineers to sit out rather than seek employment at a competitor, and Jamie Dimon shares advice for leaders. 

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

One Truth to Rip the Market

The stock market absolutely ripped yesterday, with the S&P posting its largest single-day gain since 2008. The Nasdaq notched its second-best day ever, its best single-day gain since 2001.

It’s all thanks to a Truth Social post. Trump issued a 'buy' call around 9:30am on Truth Social… and by 1:30pm, he had followed up by announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs. The exception? Tariffs still apply to China, but non-retaliating countries will get a break.

Trump will negotiate trade deals with each country on a case-by-case, 'bespoke' basis. A baseline of 10% tariffs still apply, but China tariffs will increase to 125%.

Trump’s Truth Social post sent stocks vertical. By market close, the S&P 500 had gained 10%, the Nasdaq 12%, and the Dow 8%.

Big Tech was one of the biggest winners, with many big names like Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla all posting double-digit wins. Piper Sandler says “the worst-case scenario is [likely] off the table” and Trump followed up by declaring that yesterday could have been the biggest day in financial history. 

Had you invested $1,000 after Trump's 'buy' call at 9:30am, about four hours before tariffs were paused, you would have netted over $1,100. And if you had bought calls on just about any stock, well, you would have made generational wealth. Still, critics are questioning the ethics and whether Trump was manipulating markets.

Takeaway: Did Trump fold to bond market pressure? Is this a short-lived sugar high? Hard to say. The Nasdaq also posted similar euphoric spikes during the 1987 crash, the dot-com collapse, and 2008… not exactly comforting context. But for now, stocks are vibing. And maybe… just maybe… Walter Bloomberg manifested this rally.

_{PRESENTED BY REX}

Unlock Your Portfolio with BMAX

Explore a first-of-its-kind ETF that gives you access to convertible bonds used by companies to acquire Bitcoin.

The REX Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF (BMAX) lets investors tap into this institutional strategy—without the complexity of direct Bitcoin ownership. Check it out here.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Blackstone gears up for $11 billion European property buying spree (YF)

• Bessent says economy in pretty good shape amid market route (Axios)

• Goldman backtracks recession risk (BB)

• Stocks' historic burst comes with 'worst-case scenario' off table (YF)

• Delta yanks full-year guidance (CNBC)

• Trump says he doesn't want Japan to own US Steel, shares plunge (YF)

• Dot-com bust, 1987 crash had massive relief rallies similar to Wednesday’s pop (CNBC)

• JPMorgan’s Dimon says a U.S. recession is now a likely outcome (YF)

• 2 major players just flashed caution signals and investors are paying attention (Fox)

• Fed thinks we could see higher tariff prices by June (Axios)

• Apollo’s Marc Rowan says we need to reset our trade policy (WSJ)

• Google is paying some AI experts to sit out rather than work for a competitor (GPT)

• a16z seeks to raise $20B for new AI fund (YF)

• The bond market plunges as crisis brews (Axios)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Surge on Tariff Pause, Stay Cautious

Markets Rally on Tariff Relief: Trump paused new tariff rates for 90 days, setting a 10% rate on most countries but hiking China’s to 125%. Sector tariffs (autos, steel, aluminum) remain.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34%, off its yearly low of 4%, with today’s auction showing strong demand.

Volatility as Opportunity: The VIX hit 50+ this week, signaling extreme fear. Historically, such spikes precede 20% 12-month forward returns, though volatility takes 8 months to normalize.

Bear markets hit every 3 years, but bull markets last longer with higher gains.

Stocks were near bear territory earlier—down 19% from February’s high—but today’s rally suggests markets priced in the worst.

Diversify and stay invested; timing the market rarely works.

Inflation Data Ahead: March CPI is expected at 2.6% (down from 2.8%) and core CPI at 3% (down from 3.1%).

Tariffs, effective yesterday, won’t impact this report but will likely raise near-term inflation as costs pass to consumers.

Yet, the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.3% shows long-term inflation expectations are stable.

Growth risks from tariffs may outweigh inflation risks, giving the Fed room to cut rates if growth falters.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Capri Holdings ($CPRI) +31% after the company’s pending sale of Versace faces a potential collapse.

• (+) Tesla ($TSLA) +23% because of a pause in tariffs; Elon Musk has especially been critical of tariffs.

• (+) Nvidia ($NVDA) +19% after chipmakers had their best day ever.

Private Dealmaking

• Bain Capital acquired HealthEdge for $2.6 billion

• Tailscale, a VPN startup, raised $160 million

• MeridaBiosciences, an autoimmune biotech, raised $121 million

• SILQ Group, an ecommerce group, raised $110 million

• Brinc, a public safety drone maker, raised $75 million

• Aurascape, an AI app startup, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Ideological Brain

In The Ideological Brain, Leor Zmigrod reveals the deep connection between political beliefs and the biology of the brain.

Drawing on her own pioneering research, she uncovers the complex interplay between biology and environment that predisposes some individuals to rigid ways of thinking, and explains how ideologies take hold of our brains, fundamentally changing the way we think, act and interact with others.

She shows how ideologues of all types struggle to change their thought patterns when faced with new information, culminating in the radical message that our politics are not superficial but are woven into the fabric of our minds.

This authoritative, accessible and playful blend of psychology, politics and philosophy explores the cutting-edge of the emerging field of political neuroscience.

Zmigrod examines its historical roots before she looks to the future, considering the broader social and political implications of her groundbreaking research.

Guiding readers through her experiments, she eventually describes what a free, authentic, and tolerant brain looks like, and explains how anyone can keep their mind open and flexible in the face of extremist ideologies.

“Named a best book of the year by The Guardian and The Telegraph.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Donald Pump

_{PRESENTED BY HEBBIA}

Delegate Your Diligence

Finance professionals need tools that work as hard as they do. Hebbia’s Matrix delivers powerful solutions to streamline your workflow and give you a competitive edge. Here’s how top firms use Hebbia:

• Summarize 200+ earnings calls annually without breaking a sweat.

• Review offering memorandums 5x faster to keep pace with changing markets.

• Identify red flags, compare risks, and extract critical terms in minutes.

• Turn diligence notes into IC-ready investment memos.

Whether you’re tracking opportunities, managing risk, or drafting IC memos, Hebbia helps finance teams get more done in less time, without sacrificing quality.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Exercises for a Longer Life

Here’s the best resistance training for longevity—keeping you vibrant, independent, and disease-free. It boosts metabolic function, cardiovascular health, hormonal balance, bone density, and immunity. His top three exercises:

Assisted Chin-Up: Strengthens back, biceps, forearms, core; improves shoulder stability, grip strength (linked to longevity). Use support to scale difficulty.

Bulgarian Split Squat: Builds lower body strength, stability, balance; corrects imbalances, enhances hip extension to maintain mobility, reduce pain.

Farmer’s Carry: Full-body move; improves posture, grip, joint strength, balance, coordination, and aerobic health. Simple, scalable—walk with weights.

Add cardio (low-intensity zone two and high-intensity bursts) to support heart health, mitochondrial function, and VO2 max—key for longevity. Train smart, live better.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Jamie Dimon’s 4 pieces of advice for leaders

• The most relatable and trustworthy people use this low-effort small talk tip

• 8 ways to end meeting misery

• Why the small details are critical for big success

• Why protecting your joints should be your number one fitness priority

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day