Good Morning! The market saw a slight rebound yesterday, but Apple didn’t share in the recovery—it's lost $640 billion in market cap since last Thursday. BlackRock’s Larry Fink says the CEOs he’s speaking with already believe we’re in a recession. And with M&A activity slowing down, investment banks are preparing to cut headcount.

A Yale study warns Americans could lose up to $3,800 due to tariffs, while Morgan Stanley downgraded the banking sector, citing increased recession risk.

Plus: 'Dead' investors, or inactive traders, are outperforming the living/active right now, senior partners are leaving VC firms en masse, and Indiana’s consulting firm got fired after making a $1 billion mistake. 

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_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

One Fake, $2 Trillion Headline

It’s been a wild ride for investors lately, and just when you thought things couldn’t get any crazier, a fake tweet sent markets into overdrive, adding $2.4 trillion in value in a matter of minutes… and erasing it just as fast.

On Monday morning, an anonymous X account called Walter Bloomberg (no relation to Bloomberg News) posted a headline claiming Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. The post, written in classic all-caps newswire style, went viral shortly after 10:00 a.m.

The stock market, desperate for any whiff of tariff relief, jumped all over it. By 10:18 a.m., the S&P 500 had reversed a brutal early drop and added $2.4 trillion in market value. Just one problem: it wasn’t true.

Turns out, the post didn’t come from any credible wire. Walter Bloomberg, an anonymous account that mimics real headlines and has nearly 1 million followers, said they saw the rumor circulating from smaller X accounts like T3 Live and Hammer Capital (bio: “Memes & Vibes”) around 10:09 a.m. and reposted it at 10:13 a.m., thinking it was credible because the market was already reacting.

The domino effect was instant. CNBC read the news live on-air, even flashing a chyron that said, “HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA,” despite no official confirmation. Reuters then picked it up from CNBC and blasted it out as well.

But by 10:41 a.m., the White House had officially denied the report. 

Walter Bloomberg deleted the post. And $2.5 trillion in market value vanished in just 23 minutes.

In reality, the confusion may have stemmed from a vague Fox News interview earlier that morning where White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said, “The president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.” (Not exactly policy guidance)

The S&P 500 closed the day down just 0.2%, but not before experiencing its most chaotic intraday swing since March 2020.

Takeaway: Yesterday's session was one of the most volatile in recent memory, with VIX spiking above 60, levels not seen since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. If you're trading based on information from social platforms, always verify your sources, especially if the account posting it has "vibes" in its bio.

_{PRESENTED BY MACABACUS}

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Investment banks expected to slash headcount as deals dry up (PRP)

• BlackRock's Fink says CEOs think we’re in a recession (Fox)

• Trump's wealthiest allies squirm as tariffs pinch Wall Street (Axios)

• Consumers to lose $3.8K to tariffs (Yale)

• Morgan Stanley downgrades banking sector as recession risk grows (BB)

• Senior partners are leaving their big VC firms in droves (CNBC)

• Why dead investors are outperforming the living (CNBC)

• How much do stocks have to drop before trading is halted? (CNBC)

• Venture capital’s sum of all fears (Axios)

• Travel is getting expensive (CNN)

• Hedge funds, private equity quietly invest in litigation finance (BB)

• HBS makes an AI class required for all MBA candidates (Crimson)

• Indiana replaces Medicaid consultant after $1B forecasting error  (LPM)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Tariffs Drag Equities Down, Diversification Shines

Equities Slide on Tariff Fears: U.S. markets closed lower as tariffs—10% on all imports except Canada/Mexico (hit with targeted duties on autos, steel, aluminum)—weigh on sentiment.

Higher levies on trade-deficit countries start April 9.

Stocks dipped after a false report of a 90-day tariff delay; Nasdaq gained slightly, but S&P 500 dropped, now 18% off its mid-February high at 504.38 USD.

Asian markets tanked—Nikkei -8%, Hang Seng -13%. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.2%.

Diversification Mitigates Losses: Tariffs threaten growth—higher costs may cut corporate profits and squeeze household incomes.

Yet, diversified portfolios outperformed: international stocks beat U.S. stocks, and U.S. investment-grade bonds are up 3%+ YTD.

Diversification across asset classes remains key to navigating volatility in 2025.

Volatility Normal, Recovery Possible: The U.S. economy is strong—228,000 jobs added in March (above 130,000 expected), GDP growth solid.

Historically, S&P 500 rebounds after 20%+ declines: +4.1% after 1 month, +0.7% after 6 months, +10.5% after 12 months.

Stick to long-term strategies, avoid emotional trades, and leverage diversification as trade talks unfold.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Mesa Air Group ($MESA) +55% after a merger with regional airline Republic Airways.

• (+) U.S. Steel ($X) +16% because Trump ordered a fresh review of Nippon Steel’s bid.

• (–) Tesla ($TSLA) -3% after Tesla bull Dan Ives cut his stock price; citing Elon Musk’s political ties.

Private Dealmaking

• SandboxAQ, an AI model developer, raised $150 million

• Rescale, a digital engineering platform, raised $115 million

• RayThera, an immunology biotech, raised $110 million

• Pennylane, an accounting software startup, raised $75 million

• Thatch, a health reimbursement provider, raised $40 million

• Restor3d, an orthopedic implant maker, raised $38 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Shatterproof

Are you working too much but feel like it’s never enough? Have you turned the act of pretending you’re “fine” into an art form? Does self-care feel like one more item on your already long to-do list?

We’ve been taught that resilience is the secret to navigating life’s most difficult moments. But according to New York Times bestselling author, organizational psychologist, and researcher Dr. Tasha Eurich, there is one problem with this assumption.

Scientifically, resilience isn’t an unlimited resource, especially with the growing pressure and uncertainty we’re experiencing today.

What if, instead of merely “bouncing back” from stressors and setbacks, we could harness them for forward growth?

Whether you’re grappling with work stress, personal challenges, or the chaos of everyday life, Shatterproof offers an urgent alternative to stoic endurance as the only strategy for survival. 

Combining cutting-edge research, practical tools, and insights from her own struggle with a life-defining health crisis, Dr. Eurich will overturn your beliefs about what it takes to thrive through adversity, offering a scientifically supported system to help you feel better, do better, and live better than before.

“Brave storytelling, insightful science, and wise guidance.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

S&P 500 Swings Wildly

_{PRESENTED BY DEEL}

The Multi-Country Payroll Guide That’s Setting the Standard

Managing payroll across borders isn’t just about sending paychecks on time — it’s a strategic function tied to compliance, scalability, and operational resilience. So why are so many global teams still flying blind?

This Gartner® Market Guide (courtesy of Deel) maps out what today’s leaders need to know about multi-country payroll providers — who the major players are, key selection criteria, and how to avoid common implementation pitfalls.

Here’s what you’ll learn:

• Analyst-backed insights: See how providers stack up in 2024

• A risk-proof ops strategy: Understand the compliance implications of fragmented payroll 

• How to scale smarter: Discover tech that grows with your team, wherever they go

If you’re building a global team, this isn’t just a read — it’s required homework.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Gifted Minds, Broken Bonds

Gifted people often struggle in relationships due to entitlement—believing their talents make them more important.

They may assume they’re always right, veto decisions, and dismiss others’ input, treating partners like accessories, not equals.

This stems from upbringings where talent was overvalued, tying being right to being smart to being important.

But arrogance alienates—pushing away partners, stunting growth, and wasting potential.

Being right doesn’t matter if it kills connections.

Change is possible but tough: they must ditch self-perceived privileges, question their worth, and live in reality, not delusions.

Collaboration, not domination, unlocks their gifts—otherwise, their stubbornness becomes their saboteur.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• The two-word phrase that’s making you sound unconfident

• How to boost your influence at work

• 5 NYC coffee shops with the best vibes

• When money buys happiness

• 41 items for anyone working on their time management skills

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day