🍋 Musk’s Data Heist

Plus: European stocks are crushing U.S. ones, Gold hit $3,100, recession odds up to 35%, Musk calls Tesla slump “buying opportunity,” and real estate funds took a record 21.8 months to close.

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Short Squeez
March 31, 2025

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“I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.” — Charlie Munger.

Good Morning! It’s shaping up to be another tough week for markets with “Liberation Day” on Wednesday and the Trump team considering 20% tariffs on all U.S. trading partners.

Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession odds to 35% and expects more Fed cuts this year. Investors are flocking to anything but U.S. equities, with gold hitting $3,100, and the European Stoxx 600 beating the S&P 500 by a record 17 percentage points in dollar terms this quarter.

Musk admitted his DOGE antics are “costing me a lot” at Tesla, but still sees it as a “buying opportunity.” Forbes 30 Under 30 alum Charlie Javice was convicted of inflating user numbers 10x to scam JPMorgan out of $175M.

Plus: Real estate funds took a record 21.8 months to close in 2024, PE firms are lawyering up ahead of this summer’s federal tax showdown, and why companies are salivating over 23andMe’s DNA data.

Your next finance interview is coming—get AI-powered prep today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Musk’s Data Heist

If you’ve been following Elon Musk over the past few months - you’re probably thinking the busy CEO is a little too overstretched and even distracted thanks to his new gig at DOGE. 

But on Friday, Musk made his latest move, flipping the script and announcing that his AI startup, xAI, acquired X (formerly Twitter) in an all-stock deal that values the combined entity at $113 billion.

xAI is now valued at $80 billion, while X is pegged at $33 billion, including $12 billion in debt.

Back in 2022, Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buyout looked like a massive overpay. Since then it’s been a turbulent ride, with Musk firing over 80% of the employees, losing a ton of ad revenue, and Fidelity slashing its stake by 70%. 

But, now, the narrative is changing. In 2022, Musk wasn’t just buying a social media platform or a sinking ad platform - he was buying a data treasure trove. X is home to 600 million users. xAI now owns proprietary access to billions of instant, raw, unfiltered tweets that also come packed full of slang and other popular culture trends that could help Grok stay one step ahead.

And while OpenAI and Anthropic burn cash scraping through old Reddit posts and Wikipedia articles, Musk has access to his proprietary goldmine for fresh training data.  

The long-term vision? X becomes the backbone of an “everything app,” with AI capabilities powering social, payments, commerce, and more. And rather than depending on advertising dollars, Musk is betting on owning the input layer of AI itself.

Takeaway: Call Musk whatever you want, but this escape (financial engineering or not) back to its original $44B valuation is one of the all-time financial rescues. It marks Musk’s third $100+ billion company (alongside Tesla and SpaceX), a feat no other entrepreneur has pulled off. And when he told Twitter’s advertisers to go f--k themselves? Turns out… he actually didn’t need them.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Trump team weighs broader, higher tariffs (WSJ)

  • Goldman Sachs lifts U.S. recession probability to 35% (MS)

  • Gold surges past $3,100 as US tariffs, uncertainty propel safe-haven flows (CNBC)

  • Musk says DOGE Role is costing him as Tesla shares slump (BB)

  • OpenAI's funding round has a catch (AOL)

  • Trump pardons Nikola founder Trevor Milton in securities fraud case (CNBC)

  • Europe's stock surge outpaces Wall Street in historic run (YF) 

  • Startup founder Charlie Javice defrauding JPMorgan Chase of $175M (NPR)

  • Private equity preps a two-part tax fight (Axios)

  • Here’s why companies might want 23andMe’s DNA data (CNN)

  • Egg prices plunging as bird flu subsides and shortages dissipate (Axios)

  • This 23-year-old’s app lets you trade stocks like Nancy Pelosi and Warren Buffett (NYP)

  • Why the American consumer is fed up (CNN)

  • How Musk's PayPal tenure shaped his approach to Social Security overhaul (YF)

  • Novo Nordisk’s diabetes pill slashes cardiovascular risk by 14% (CNBC)

  • Blackstone buyout fund closes late and below earlier goals (BB)

  • BlackRock's deal for Panama ports gets delayed, source says (Axios)

  • Real estate funds took a record 21.8 months to close in 2024 (PB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Stocks Tank on Shaky Sentiment, Tariffs Loom Large

U.S. stocks took a nosedive Friday, dropping 1.5% to 2.5% across major indexes, as tariff jitters and gloomy consumer vibes rattled investors.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sank to 57 in March—down from 57.9, the lowest since 2022—flashing warning signs of a souring public mood amid policy fog.

The S&P 500 is teetering just 1% from its March 13 low, down 5% for 2025, while the Nasdaq—hammered by a mega-cap tech exodus—slid nearly 10% this year.

Investors are on edge, eyeing the April 2 reciprocal tariff reveal, with many playing it safe and sitting out.

Bonds, though, are the year’s darlings—10-year Treasury yields eased to 4.25% from a mid-January peak of 4.8%, likely to hover between 4% and 4.5% unless Fed cuts kick in.

Inflation update: February’s headline PCE hit 2.5% year-over-year, as expected, but core PCE crept up to 2.8%, topping forecasts of 2.7%—services inflation’s sticky, and tariffs might soon spike goods prices.

Spending’s holding up—personal consumption rose 0.4% in February (after a 0.2% dip), though real spending, inflation-adjusted, only nudged up 0.1%. Households are splurging now, maybe bracing for tariff-driven price hikes.

Tariff tension: April 2’s policy drop could split the difference—steel, aluminum, semiconductors, autos, and pharma might get heavy protection, while reciprocal tariffs could open negotiation doors with trade partners.

Markets hate the unknown, and tariffs threaten higher costs and weaker demand, but clarity might pave the way for a pro-growth pivot—think tax reform and deregulation—to lift spirits.

Until then, it’s a bumpy ride, so buckle up or hide in bonds with a smirk.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Argan ($AGX) +20% after the energy plant design company crushed Q4 earnings

  • (+) W.R. Berkley ($WRB) +8% because Mitsui bought 15% of the insurance company's shares.

  • (–) Lululemon ($LULU) -14% after the athleisure company warns of a consumer pullback.

Private Dealmaking

  • KKR and Japan Investment Partners bought Topcon for $2.31 billion

  • Character Biosciences, a polygenic disease drug developer, raised $93 million

  • Hillstar Bio, an immunology biotech, raised $67 million

  • n8n, a workflow automation platform, raised $60 million

  • Navina, a clinical intelligence startup, raised $55 million

  • Marvel Fusion, a nuclear fusion startup, raised $54 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Mortgage rates decreased two basis points week over week. Recent mortgage rate stability has allowed buyers to feel more comfortable entering the space as it’s been reflected in the overall increase in purchase applications, indicating positive momentum continuing into the spring selling season.

Latest News

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Whether you're looking to buy, sell, rent, or invest, we've got you covered. Don't miss out—fill out this form to get started.

BOOK OF THE DAY

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DAILY VISUAL

European Stocks Crush American Counterparts

Index performance in 2025

Source: WSJ

 

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DAILY ACUMEN

Tossing and Turning

Sleep’s getting trickier, and it’s not just you—modern life’s a snooze-killer.

Screentime, 24/7 info overload, and late-night bright lights mess with your brain’s melatonin, keeping you wired when you should be out cold.

Sleep psychologist Jade Wu says it’s not just quantity—timing matters more.

Consistent sleep schedules slash risks of cancer, heart disease, and dementia, per big studies.

Insomnia’s the top issue: if you’re taking ages to doze off or waking up restless for weeks, that’s it—perimenopause or stress (like a wild bachelor party) can trigger it.

Sleep apnea’s another culprit, especially underdiagnosed in women, causing daytime sleepiness and heart strain.

Night owls like Skylar get the short end—society’s built for morning larks, but genetics set your chronotype.

Fix it with 20 minutes of morning sunlight to shift your melatonin curve.

Capitalism’s to blame too, Wu quips—industrialization’s rigid 8-hour sleep dogma ignores our natural rhythms.

Good sleep’s as vital as food: it fuels health, mood, and creativity.

ENLIGHTENMENT

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  • How effective leaders minimize office politics

  • 5 tiny to-dos to increase productivity

  • The latest ranking of happiest cities in America

  • 3 simple strategies to take control of your time

  • 10 habits that make you look older

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

 

 

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