Good Morning! Nvidia’s officially in correction territory, down 10% from its $148.88 peak on Nov 7. The Fed is expected to announce a final 2024 rate cut tomorrow, and Bitcoin crossed $107,000 ahead of the decision.

U.S. economic output grew at its fastest pace in nearly 3 years. WHP Global is buying wedding dress brand Vera Wang, Wamco’s ex-CIO pled not guilty to $600M fraud, and Ozy Media’s Carlos Watson got nearly 10 years for fraud.

Plus, Super Micro was removed from Nasdaq 100, TikTok is begging the Supreme Court for an emergency appeal, and the $690 watch with DNA from Piaget and Rolex.

Financial Times Person of the Year drops soon. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang leads with 43%. Think he’ll take the crown? Place your bets now on Kalshi.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Trump: $200B? Son: I’ll Try My Best

Masayoshi Son is back - and this time he’s buttering up Donald Trump just like he did 2016.

On Monday, alongside President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Son announced SoftBank’s plan to invest at least $100 billion in U.S. projects over the next four years, creating an estimated 100,000 jobs.

The focus? Artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, including AI chips, data centers, and energy infrastructure.

If this feels like déjà vu, it’s because Son made similar headlines in 2016 when he pledged $50 billion in U.S. investments and 50,000 jobs after Trump’s first election win. Back then, much of the money came from SoftBank’s Vision Fund, a $100 billion venture fund bankrolled by Middle Eastern investors.

While the numbers were achieved, almost half the capital was sunk into flops like WeWork ($18 billlion), Katerra ($2 billion) and a robot pizza-delivery company, scaring off outside investors from backing a second Vision Fund.

Masayoshi also famously fumbled his Nvidia bag. SoftBank once held a 4.9% stake in Nvidia—now worth a staggering $160 billion—but cashed out early, selling it for just $3.6 billion.

This time, Son is playing it differently. Instead of relying on external investors, SoftBank plans to fund the new $100 billion directly from its own balance sheet.

Trump, ever the dealmaker, pushed for more during the announcement, even asking Son to consider doubling the pledge to $200 billion. Son laughed it off saying “I will try to make it happen” and called Trump “a great negotiator.”

Takeaway: Son’s $100 billion pledge is as much about diplomacy as it is about investment. With a portfolio that includes ByteDance (the parent company of TikTok, which Trump has criticized heavily), this move may also serve as a geopolitical gambit to strengthen ties with Trump and the U.S.

The bold headlines are good for optics, but as with past promises, only time will tell whether this investment is transformative or just another overhyped play in Masayoshi Son’s gamble-filled career.

_{PRESENTED BY KALSHI}

Who Will Win Financial Times’ Person of the Year?

Financial Times Person of the Year is expected to be announced soon. Who will take the title?

At the moment, traders on Kalshi are favoring Jensen Huang (43%), the Nvidia CEO who’s leading the AI revolution.

Close behind is Donald Trump (30%), fresh off his re-election as U.S. President and TIMES Person of the Year win, followed by Javier Milei (20%), Argentina’s outspoken new leader reshaping the nation’s economy.

A $1,000 bet on Huang could return $2,146. Who’s your pick? Place your bets on Kalshi now.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Nvidia hit correction territory, down more than 10% from its record close (CNBC)

• Fed will likely cut rates despite strong economy (USN)

• Bitcoin rises to new record above $107,000 ahead of Fed decision (CNBC)

• Federal workers flip out as Trump threatens to end cushy benefit handed out under Biden (Fox)

• Ex-Wamco CIO pleads not guilty to $600M fraud (YF)

• US economic output just grew at its fastest pace in nearly 3 years (YF)

• Wedding dress brand Vera Wang agrees to be acquired (Axios)

• Super Micro slides off Nasdaq 100 (CNBC)

• TikTok appeals to Supreme Court (CNBC)

• Why CEOs are sucking up to Trump (YF)

• Ozy Media founder sentenced to almost 10 years for fraud (MSN)

• Employee email pushes Starbucks CEO to make big changes at company (Fox)

• Amazon and the endangered future of the middle manager (CNBC)

• Inexpensive watches arrive with design DNA from Piaget and Rolex (BB)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Tech Rally Lifts Markets as Fed Decision Looms

U.S. stocks started the week on a positive note, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, while the Dow closed lower. Shares of Broadcom surged another 11%, adding to last week’s massive 25% gain, fueled by excitement around artificial intelligence.

International markets underperformed, weighed by China's weaker-than-expected retail sales, signaling a need for additional stimulus to bolster economic growth.

All Eyes on the Fed

The Federal Reserve takes center stage this week, with a quarter-point rate cut expected on Wednesday, bringing the target range to 4.25%–4.5%. The Fed will also release its updated economic and interest-rate projections, which may reflect a slower pace of easing in 2025.

Unlike Canada and Europe, where growth is lagging, the U.S. economy remains resilient despite slower progress on inflation. The Fed may opt to pause in January and reduce rates two or three times next year, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 3.5%–4% by year-end, keeping 10-year Treasury yields in the 4%–4.5% range.

Cautious Optimism Heading into 2025

Stocks appear poised to close the year with above-average returns, underpinned by a healthy labor market and easing lending standards.

Looking ahead, manufacturing could stage a recovery in 2025, supported by the Fed’s gradual policy shift toward a neutral stance. However, policy uncertainty around trade, tariffs, and immigration could create volatility.

While expectations remain high for pro-growth initiatives, concerns about inflation or slowing growth may trigger market pullbacks.

Investors should remain focused on the longer-term uptrend, as earnings growth replaces valuation expansion as the primary driver of returns. Gains may slow but should remain positive in 2025, with pullbacks providing opportunistic entry points amid strong fundamentals.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Broadcom ($AVGO) +11% after Goldman raised its price target, citing higher conviction in the company’s outlook.

• (+) Capri Holdings ($CPRI) +4% because the company is reportedly exploring a sale of its Versace, Jimmy Choo brands.

• (–) Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) -8% after the stock was removed from the Nasdaq 100.

Private Dealmaking

• One, a fintech launched by Walmart, raised $300 million

• Anybotics, a robotic inspection solutions provider, raised $60 million

• Envinced, an accessibility dev tools developer, raised $55 million

• Becis, a distributed energy services provider, raised $53 million 

• Twelve Labs, a  video understanding AI company, raised $30 million

• Current, a neobank valued by VCs at $2.2 billion in 2021, raised $30 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Fintech Wars

Fintech Wars delves into one of the world's most lucrative and fast-growing sectors. Witness the bold strategies, groundbreaking innovations, and relentless drive that propelled fintech unicorns like PayPal, Nubank and Monzo to transform the world.

Featuring interviews with generational founders including Reid Hoffman (LinkedIn), Nigel Morris (Capital One), and Martha Lane Fox (Lastminute.com), the narrators of this book have built companies that represent over one trillion dollars in market capitalization.

As the founder of a digital bank, James da Costa is a fintech insider. He draws upon his network and first-hand experiences to offer a fascinating look into the intricacies and motivations behind building billion-dollar disruptors. Step into the fascinating, unpredictable and inspiring world of fintech.

“Fintech touches every part of our lives, from cashless economies to crypto, and even our climate. This book draws back the curtain on this fascinating world full of friction, failure and fortune.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

No One Even Comes Close

Number of Data Centers

_{PRESENTED BY OPTIFINO}

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_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Behaviorceuticals

It turns out rats can drive cars—yes, you read that right—and they love it. In a clever experiment by neuroscientist Kelly Lambert, rats eagerly learned to drive mini cars for Fruit Loops, and the surprising result revealed something fundamental about brains, both rodent and human.

The “worker rats,” who had to put in effort to get rewards (like digging or driving), were neurologically healthier, more adaptable, and even displayed signs of rat joy compared to their “trust fund” counterparts who were simply handed their treats. Why? Effort, learning, and movement stimulate brain growth and happiness—Lambert calls these actions behaviorceuticals, natural brain boosters that work like antidepressants.

The takeaway for humans: our brains evolved to tackle challenges, not idle at desks all day. Picking up a new hobby, hiking, or learning to cook doesn’t just sound good—it rewires your brain for better mood, neuroplasticity, and overall well-being. Like rats behind the wheel, a little effort can drive us toward happiness.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Boost productivity with a strong mindset

• 5 behaviors of smart people who never succeed in life

• 3 key ways to develop guaranteed income for retirement

• Welcome to the human doom loop

• 8 signs someone lacks the emotional intelligence needed for a relationship

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day