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🍋 Largest Tech M&A Ever?
Qualcomm approached Intel about a takeover, and Apollo is weighing a $5B equity investment in the beleaguered chipmaker.
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“It's the work on your desk. Do well with what you already have and more will come in.” — Charlie Munger
Good Morning! Hope y’all had a wonderful weekend. Elon said SpaceX could send uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2 years. Truth Social stock slid to a new low after Trump’s lock-up period expired. The iconic discount chain Motel 6 was sold to an Indian company for $525 million. Fed’s Bowman is still complaining about the half-point rate cut. Apollo received $5 billion from BNP to expand its private credit bets, and the hedge fund Two Sigma is in talks to pay the Feds $100 million in fines. Plus a report found online dating has surprising influence on wealth gap in couples and 10 reasons why people tune you out.
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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY
Largest Tech M&A Ever?
Intel used to be the third largest U.S. company - with a peak market cap of over $500 billion during the dot-com bubble in August 2000.
Founded in 1968, you’d think the semiconductor giant could have leveraged its deep corporate relationships to capitalize on the AI boom. Instead, the stock is down 54% year-to-date, as the company has struggled to adapt to shifts in the chip market.
Intel's challenges began before the AI boom, but the company failed to anticipate the market shifts that have favored rivals like Nvidia, now valued at $2.85 trillion.
It looks like Intel is about to get a lifeline - it’s just not clear from who. On Friday, reports broke that Qualcomm approached Intel about a takeover. It would be the largest tech merger of all time. Qualcomm's market cap is around $188 billion, and Intel's is around $93 billion - and got a small boost on the news. The largest tech merger to date was Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
Whether the takeover would even be allowed is uncertain. Both companies are massive and strategically important, and given the strong antitrust landscape in Washington, this deal—one of the largest ever—won’t proceed without a fight.
Qualcomm might face competition from one of Wall Street’s biggest and most notorious firms. Reportedly, Apollo is considering a multi-billion dollar investment in Intel, likely around $5 billion, signaling their support for Intel's turnaround strategy.
Takeaway: Intel is a major recipient of capital commitments from the CHIPS Act - so the company isn’t going anywhere. But it’s clear that was once the largest and arguably most historic American chipmaker needs some help to unlock value and potential. Whether that comes from Qualcomm or the principals at 9 West 57th Street, one thing is for sure - it was a terrible weekend to be the deal team staffed on the Intel acquisition.
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Wall Street’s Best-Kept Secret: The Tool Powering Elite Dealmakers
As Wall Street firms scramble to cut down the notorious 100+ hour weeks for junior bankers, the industry’s top players are turning to a more powerful solution. Mosaic’s revolutionary deal-modeling software is quietly being adopted by Wall Street’s leading firms managing nearly $1 trillion in assets.
Mosaic isn’t just about saving time—it delivers unparalleled insights, empowering you to analyze complex deals in minutes. With automated calculations and seamless exports to Excel, PDF, and PowerPoint, Mosaic frees you from the grind of endless revisions, letting you focus on what really matters: strategy and winning deals.
HEADLINES
Top Reads
Musk hopes his new supercomputers will boost his businesses (CNBC)
Musk says SpaceX could send 5 uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2 years (Fox)
Trump now allowed to sell stock in struggling Truth Social (Axios)
Trump Media sinks to new lows as lockup expires (YF)
Iconic discount chain Motel 6 sold to Indian company for $525 million (WP)
Fed's Bowman wanted smaller rate cut, says 'inflation goal' not met (YF)
Apollo snags $5B from BNP to expand private credit bets (BB)
Embattled hedge fund Two Sigma in talks to pay feds whopping $100M (NYP)
Silicon Valley founders fight back (Axios)
FTC sues drug middlemen for allegedly inflating insulin prices (CNBC)
Private equity firms seek new terms to increase payouts on deals (FT)
American Airlines to pick Citigroup over Barclays for credit card deal (CNBC)
Online dating has unexpected influence on wealth gaps (Fox)
CAPITAL PULSE
Markets Rundown
Market Commentary
U.S. stocks opened lower on Friday, giving back some of the week’s earlier gains in a brief pullback. However, by midday, buyers stepped in, helping the market recover most of the losses.
The S&P 500 finished just below Thursday’s all-time high, while the Dow reached new highs, and the Nasdaq 100 remained 4% below its July peak.
The market experienced added volatility due to "Triple Witching," with $5.1 trillion in options expiring.
Utilities led the day, driven by nuclear stocks on reports of a plant restart, while transportation stocks lagged after FedEx's disappointing earnings.
Fed Governor Waller’s comments indicated future rate hikes depend heavily on upcoming jobs and inflation data.
Movers & Shakers
(+) Nike ($NKE) +7% after the retailer announced a CEO change.
(–) Chewy ($CHWY) -4% because the pet retailer is reducing private equity ownership.
(–) FedEx ($FDX) -15% after an earnings miss; cutting full-year guidance.
Private Dealmaking
Twelve, a sustainable aviation fuel startup, raised $645 million
Motel 6 was sold to Indian company for $525 million
Physics Wallah, an ed-tech company, raised $210 million
Alan, a French health insurer, raised $193 million
Virtuous, a CRM fundraising provider for nonprofits, raised $100 million
GC Therapeutics, a cell therapy startup, raised $65 million
Picus Security, a cybersecurity startup, raised $45 million
For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.
BOOK OF THE DAY
She-Wolves: The Untold History of Women on Wall Street
First came the secretaries from Brooklyn and Queens―the “smart cookies” who saw that making money, lots of it, might be within their grasp. Then came the first female Harvard Business School graduates, who were in for a rude awakening because an equal degree did not mean equal opportunity.
But by the 1980s, as the market went into turbo drive, women were being plucked from elite campuses to feed the belly of a rapidly expanding beast, playing for high stakes in Wall Street’s bad-boy culture by day and clubbing by night.
In She-Wolves, award-winning historian Paulina Bren tells the story of how women infiltrated Wall Street from the swinging sixties to 9/11―starting at a time when “No Ladies” signs hung across the doors of its luncheon clubs and (more discretely) inside its brokerage houses and investment banks. If the wolves of Wall Street made a show of their ferocity, the she-wolves did so with subtlety and finesse.
Research analysts signed their reports with genderless initials. Muriel “Mickie” Siebert, the first woman to buy a seat on the NYSE, threatened she’d have port-a-potties delivered if the exchange didn’t finally install a ladies’ room near the dining room.
The infamous 1996 Boom-Boom Room class action lawsuit, filed by women at Smith Barney, pulled back the curtain on a bawdy subculture where unapologetic sexism and racism were the norm.
As engaging as it is enraging, She-Wolves is an illuminating deep dive into the collision of women, finance, and New York.
“The propulsive story of the women who sought, and gained, a piece of the action on Wall Street.”
DAILY VISUAL
Debanking Continues
Source: Apollo
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DAILY ACUMEN
Mental Models
The human brain is a powerful yet limited tool. We can't possibly process all the information around us, so we rely on mental models - frameworks for understanding the world. One of the most versatile mental models is the "Circle of Competence," popularized by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
The Circle of Competence is simple: each of us has areas where we have knowledge and experience (our circle), and areas where we don't. The key to success, according to Buffett, is to recognize the perimeter of that circle and operate within it. "Know your circle of competence, and stick within it," he advises. "The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."
This model has profound implications. First, it encourages intellectual honesty. By acknowledging our limitations, we can focus on our strengths and avoid costly mistakes in unfamiliar territories. Second, it promotes continuous learning. We can consciously work to expand our circle through study and experience.
Consider how this applies to investing, career choices, or even personal relationships. In investing, staying within your circle means focusing on industries you understand.
In your career, it might mean specializing in areas where you excel rather than chasing trendy fields. In relationships, it could mean being honest about your emotional capabilities.
The beauty of this model is its universality. Everyone, regardless of background or education, has a unique circle of competence. The challenge - and opportunity - lies in recognizing and leveraging it.
So, take a moment to reflect: What's in your circle of competence? Where are its edges? And how might you expand it, even by a small amount, today?
Remember, as Munger says, "I'm no genius. I'm smart in spots—but I stay around those spots."
ENLIGHTENMENT
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MEME-A-PALOOZA
Memes of the Day
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