Good morning! The SEC is holding no prisoners in 2025. Elon Musk is being sued for allegedly failing to disclose his Twitter stake, Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo got fined for unauthorized texting, and Robinhood took a hit for multiple violations, including failing to protect customer data.

Intel plans to spin off its venture capital arm, one of the oldest corporate VCs. Meta is gearing up for an ‘intense’ year by cutting its bottom 5% of performers, while both Meta and Google are hoping a potential TikTok ban leads to an ad share windfall.

Plus, Jamie Dimon remains skeptical of Bitcoin, OpenAI brought a top Wall Street dealmaker onto its board for its for-profit pivot, and investment bankers say the Trump M&A is boom already underway.

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_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

JPMorgan’s Game of Thrones

Wall Street’s version of Succession took a new turn yesterday as Jennifer Piepszak, once considered a frontrunner for the CEO role at JPMorgan, stepped out of the spotlight, at least for now.

Piepszak will assume the role of Chief Operating Officer this summer, succeeding Daniel Pinto, who plans to retire in 2026. According to a JPMorgan spokesperson, Piepszak has “made clear her preference for this senior operating role” and does not want to be considered for the CEO position “at this time.”

Dimon, who has led JPMorgan for nearly 20 years, is a towering figure on Wall Street and one of the longest-serving CEOs in the industry. At 68, he has hinted that his time as CEO is winding down, telling analysts last year that his departure is “not five years anymore.”

To prepare for his eventual retirement, JPMorgan has spent years grooming top executives, rotating them across divisions to create a deep bench of potential successors. The current shortlist of contenders to succeed Dimon includes:

• Douglas Petno (59): Co-CEO of the Commercial and Investment Bank

• Troy Rohrbaugh (54): Co-CEO of the Commercial and Investment Bank

• Marianne Lake (55): Head of Consumer & Community Banking

Dimon’s leadership has been synonymous with JPMorgan’s golden era, marked by record profits, dominance across financial sectors, and deft navigation through the 2008 financial crisis. As he eyes retirement, some investors are speculating that he might remain involved as chairman of the board.

Takeaway: JPMorgan’s CEO sweepstakes has become a central narrative in the financial world, with analysts and investors closely monitoring the firm’s leadership dynamics. The transition is drawing significant attention, and it’s hard to keep such a high-profile process under wraps. One thing’s for sure: Dimon’s successor will have big shoes—and even bigger expectations—to fill.

_{PRESENTED BY HEBBIA}

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• US SEC sues Elon Musk over late disclosure of Twitter stake (CNN)

• The SEC fines Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo in texting crackdown (YF) 

• Robinhood SEC charges: Firm to pay $45 million in penalties (CNBC)

• Biden signs executive order for AI (AP)

• Intel Capital is spinning off from Intel (Axios)

• Meta targeting 5% of lowest-performing employees in latest layoffs (CNBC)

• Meta, Google stand to win ad share from TikTok ban (Axios)

• Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (YF)

• Shake Shack aims to add hundreds of burger shops (WSJ)

• Which insurance companies have the most exposure in California? (Fox)

• OpenAI says BlackRock exec Ogunlesi is joining the board (CNBC)

• The force behind the private credit boom (BB)

• Investment bankers say Trump M&A boom already underway (Fox)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Rise Ahead of CPI Report

Equity markets closed higher Tuesday, led by small- and mid-cap stocks. Utilities and financials were the top-performing sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.78%, following the producer-price report.

In global markets, European stocks declined, led by energy stocks. In commodities, WTI oil dropped on forecasts of steady demand and rising U.S. output over the next two years.

Producer Price Inflation Lower Than Expected

The producer price index (PPI) rose 3.3% annualized in December, slightly below expectations of 3.4%. Monthly inflation was 0.2%, consistent with recent trends, translating to about 2.5% annualized.

The services component of PPI was flat, which could help reduce consumer services inflation, still elevated at 4.5% year-over-year.

Markets Turn Attention to CPI Data

The consumer price index (CPI) for December is forecasted at 2.8% annualized, up from 2.7% the previous month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to remain steady at 3.3%.

Inflation is expected to moderate gradually, aided by shelter-price disinflation and slower wage growth, though the path may be uneven.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Applied Digital ($APLD) +10% after Macquarie will invest $5B into the company’s data centers.

• (–) Eli Lilly ($LLY) -7% because the company said consumer demand for weight loss drugs won’t meet expectations.

• (–) Signet Jewelers ($SIG) -22% after the parent company of Kay Jewelers lowered its guidance.

Private Dealmaking

• United Rentals bought H&E Equipment Services for $4.8 billion

• Eli Lilly will buy Scorpion Therapeutics, a precision oncology company, for $2.2 billion

• Cera, an in-home healthcare startup, raised $150 million

• OnPay, a payroll and benefits startup, raised $100 million

• Qventus, a hospital management software provider, raised $85 million

• Float Financial, an expense management provider, raised $70 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Market Mind Games

What if the mystery of market crashes stems from a simple but total misunderstanding of our own minds? Could everything we think we know about ourselves—intelligence and rationality versus emotion and irrationality—be wildly off the mark? Simply put: yes.

With these words, Denise Shull introduces her radical—and supremely rational— approach to risk. Her vision stems from the indisputable fact that human beings can’t make any decision at all without emotion and that emotion gets the first—and last—word when it comes to our perceptions and judgments.

Shull should know. She started out managing major accounts for IBM and then chose to research unconscious emotional patterns instead of getting her MBA. Next she became a trader and trading desk manager while continuing to study biopsychology.

We are all taught that sidelining our emotions is the best way to make good decisions— Shull declares the converse: emotions inform us. Attempting to control them actually increases the risks we take. Shull advocates treating feelings as data, and she convincingly argues that doing so eradicates the baffling question that repeats itself in our heads after making a poor investing decision: “What was I thinking?”

Through a series of “lectures,” Shull logically but engagingly connects emotions, beliefs, and context to our innate reaction to uncertainty and risk (yes, the two are different). In Market Mind Games, she merges more than 20 years of studying risk decisions into a single, astoundingly effective strategy.

A reasonable approach to emotion is the best and only way to win the investing game. The methods Shull details in Market Mind Games shake the foundation of conventional market and decision psychology. And, most important, they work.

“Masterful explanation of not only why emotionless trading is a myth, but how we can take advantage of our natural wiring to gain an edge.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Few Countries in Recession in 2025 and 2026

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_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Quality Sleep

Sleep experts agree that mornings are critical for setting the stage for a good night’s sleep, as they regulate our circadian rhythm, which dictates when we feel awake or sleepy. Key to this is avoiding staying in bed after waking up.

Sleep doctors immediately get out of bed to maintain the bedroom as a space associated only with rest, avoid grogginess, and signal to the brain that it’s time to start the day.

They also emphasize the importance of exposing themselves to natural light within 30 minutes of waking to halt melatonin production and align their internal clocks.

Consistent wake-up times, even on weekends, help regulate physiological functions and prevent "social jet lag," which can cause fatigue and irritability.

Additionally, many experts incorporate light morning exercise, like walking, to boost alertness and energy. Making the bed can also serve as a symbolic way to start the day with structure and deter midday naps.

Ultimately, these habits—combined with consistent schedules and light exposure—help maintain high-quality sleep and overall well-being.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 6 steps to become a more consistent leader

• Evening habits to become a morning person

• Why movement is the key to living longer

• Executive presence for highly sensitive professionals

• 6 ways the sweetness of doing nothing can boost your career

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day