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🍋 'Industry' Nails the Vibes, Fumbles the Finance

🍋 'Industry' Nails the Vibes, Fumbles the Finance

Apparently, HBO's 'Industry' skipped Finance 101. Plus Goldman warns S&P 500 growth may slow to 3% annually over the next decade.

Short Squeez
October 22, 2024

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“If you think your boss is stupid, remember: you wouldn’t have a job if he was any smarter.” — John Gotti

Good Morning! Nvidia hit a record high and is close to toppling Apple as the world’s most valuable company. Goldman warns S&P 500 growth may slow to 3% annually over the next decade. Spirit stock is soaring on the news the company will avoid bankruptcy. Disney will name Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026. TPG is raising a sports-focused private equity fund, and 10-year treasury yields may hit 5%.

Plus, Chick-fil-A is releasing its own entertainment app, Apple’s AirPods Pro 2 will work as a hearing aid, and the hottest baby registry item.

The 2024 presidential race is heating up, and now’s your chance to profit from your prediction. Will the incumbent party stay in power, or will a challenging party take the Oval Office? Trade on Kalshi today.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

'Industry' Nails the Vibes, Fumbles the Finance

HBO’s "Industry" might be one of the most popular TV shows. The show has a cult-like following from both finance bros and drama enthusiasts alike. But the show, which focuses on a fictional American investment bank in London called Pierpoint, might just be a little financially inaccurate.

Pierpoint is rumored to loosely be based on JPMorgan. But Wall Street bankers are starting to scratch their heads a little. The last season saw Pierpoint caught up in an ESG-fueled bank failure and an IPO for a renewable energy company.

One of the biggest plot holes… why a trader would handle an IPO? That’s more of a job for an equity capital markets banker. And it’s not likely that an ESG pivot could really tank a bank.

But the vibes are pretty much spot-on… at least for an investment banking drama. It’s a thrilling watch full of screaming matches, clueless Ivy League analysts, and even some illicit substances.

Just don’t expect financial accuracy. The show’s co-creator himself, a former equity sales professional from Morgan Stanley, even admitted that “we’re making HBO drama, not PBS docs" and that authenticity has its limits for a blockbuster television series.

Takeaway: If you’re looking to pick up on granular finance technical knowledge…Industry probably isn’t the show for you. But viewers might get bored watching a real day in the life of an investment banker. They’re definitely taking creative liberties, and it’s a good thing that, in real life, investment banks don’t crumble over one bad deal.

In all seriousness, Industry captures both the thrill and misery of Wall Street - even if they are calling basis points pbs instead of bps. Industry might be more about the adrenaline than accuracy - but that’s apparently why its viewers love it.

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_HEADLINES

Markets Rundown

Tepid start to the week after hitting new highs: U.S. equity markets closed lower on Monday after a strong performance last week that extended the S&P 500's winning streak to six weeks. Weakness in real estate, financial services, and health care sectors weighed on markets, while technology was the only sector to end the day higher.

Year-to-date, leaders across various sectors include technology, utilities, communication services, financial services, and industrials, all of which are up more than 21% in 2024. Commodities also saw movement, with gold and oil prices higher today—oil rebounding after an 8% decline last week.

With no major economic reports due this week, earnings announcements and political factors may become the key drivers of market activity.

Interest rates on the rise: The 10-year Treasury yield increased again on Monday, climbing to 4.20%, the highest level since late July, continuing a trend of rising rates despite the Fed's recent policy-easing moves.

In the past month, long-term rates have risen around 50 basis points (0.50%), reflecting confidence in the economy’s continued strength. While the Fed is expected to pursue a gradual and extended easing cycle, markets may see pauses depending on incoming data on inflation and the labor market.

The week ahead: earnings in focus: Economic data is light this week, with a few housing reports and PMI releases offering a look at real estate activity and economic momentum. However, attention will be on corporate earnings, with over one-fifth of S&P 500 companies set to report results.

Technology companies, particularly the mega-cap tech stocks, are anticipated to continue driving earnings growth. Looking ahead, EPS estimates for the broader market suggest earnings growth will extend beyond tech, with consensus estimates calling for 14% average quarterly earnings growth for the S&P 500 excluding the top tech companies.

Movers & Shakers

(+) Spirit Airlines ($SAVE) +53% after the airline extended its deadline to refinance debt; is not going bankrupt yet.
(+) Warby Parker ($WRBY) +10% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the eyeglass maker and retailer on margin growth.
(–) Cigna ($CI) -5% because Cigna reportedly resumed merger discussions with Humana.

Private Dealmaking

DNB Bank bought Carnegie, a Swedish bank, for $1.14 billion
Carlisle Cos. bought Plasti-Fab, an EPS insulation products provider, for $259.5 million
Seaport Therapeutics, a neuropsychiatric medicines developer, raised $225 million
Carbon Robotics, an agricultural robots developer, raised $70 million
Zephyr, a digital home services platform, raised $60 million
Horizon Surgical Services, a microsurgery robotics startup, raised $30 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Feel Good Productivity

We think that productivity is all about hard work. That the road to success is lined with endless frustration and toil. But what if there’s another way?

Dr Ali Abdaal – the world's most-followed productivity expert – has uncovered an easier and happier path to success. Drawing on decades of psychological research, he has found that the secret to productivity and success isn't grind – it's feeling good. If you can make your work feel good, then productivity takes care of itself.

In this revolutionary book, Ali reveals how the science of feel-good productivity can transform your life. He introduces the three hidden 'energisers' that underpin enjoyable productivity, the three 'blockers' we must overcome to beat procrastination, and the three 'sustainers' that prevent burnout and help us achieve lasting fulfillment.

He recounts the inspiring stories of founders, Olympians, and Nobel-winning scientists who embody the principles of Feel-Good Productivity. And he introduces the simple, actionable changes that you can use to achieve more and live better, starting today.

Armed with Ali’s insights, you won’t just accomplish more. You’ll feel happier and more fulfilled along the way.

“The secret to productivity isn’t discipline. It’s joy.”

My go to holiday drink!

The holidays can bring delicious indulgences, but they often lead to digestive discomfort. That’s where Pique’s Nandaka comes in! This blend of Pu’er Black and Green Teas, adaptogenic mushrooms, and ceremonial-grade Peruvian cacao offers gentle, sustained energy without the crash. With just 82mg of slow-release caffeine, it’s perfect hot or cold.

As the holiday season approaches, consider gifting Nandaka to loved ones seeking a healthier coffee alternative. Plus, enjoy 20% off on Pique’s best sellers! Don’t miss this chance to gift wellness!

Get 20% off Pique's best sellers + a free starter kit!

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Fed Balance Sheet Check-in

Source: Axios

_{PRESENTED BY RYSE}

Missed Investing in RYSE? You Have Another Chance

RYSE is on the cusp of making automated smart shades a staple. And if you missed investing in their company, you have another chance.

Along with their recent launch in Best Buy retail stores, they’ve just opened a new public offering. You can invest in their company at just $1.75/share.

Best Buy has a knack for picking the up-and-coming tech products that go on to dominate the market. Their early bets on household items like Ring (acquired by Amazon for $1.2B) and Nest (acquired by Google for $3.2B) have a proven record of paying off.

And now, they’re lifting the curtain on their latest find, launching RYSE’s SmartShades in over 120 retail stores. RYSE has already hit $8M+ in lifetime revenue with over 40,000 units sold, and the numbers are rising (along with the window shades).

RYSE shareholders have seen their value increase 40% year-over-year, with strong upside remaining as the smart home industry continues its projected double-digit growth until 2033.

Invest in RYSE at just $1.75/share before it becomes a household name.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Money in Relationships

Money is often seen as one of the hardest topics to discuss in relationships, yet it's crucial for long-term satisfaction. Research highlights how the motives behind earning money can either strengthen or strain a relationship.

When both partners view money as a means for self-worth, freedom, or shared experiences (integrated motives), they tend to experience greater relationship satisfaction. On the other hand, motivations tied to impulsive spending, feeling superior, or reducing self-doubt (nonintegrated motives) can create friction and dissatisfaction.

Interestingly, having similar financial values with your partner goes a long way in fostering harmony. Couples who share integrated money motives report stronger, happier connections compared to those with differing financial perspectives. Therefore, discussing money motives openly is key.

It may be uncomfortable, but it's essential to align on how each partner thinks about earning, saving, and spending. Chemistry and fun might bring people together, but understanding each other's financial mindset is what keeps relationships thriving in the long run.

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_MEME_-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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🍋 'Industry' Nails the Vibes, Fumbles the Finance

Apparently, HBO's 'Industry' skipped Finance 101. Plus Goldman warns S&P 500 growth may slow to 3% annually over the next decade.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}