Good Morning and Happy Friday! Stock futures dropped as Wall Street braces for today’s jobs report. Jefferies kicked off 2025 with profits more than tripling, fueled by a rebound in investment banking revenue.

TikTok faces a U.S. shutdown on January 19 unless the Supreme Court intervenes, with oral arguments scheduled for today. Experts predict AI could drive up to 200,000 Wall Street job cuts in the next 3-5 years, especially in back-office roles. Meanwhile, Blackstone is investing $300M in an AI data company.

LA wildfires have burned over 29,000 acres, forcing 300,000+ evacuations. President Biden pledged federal aid to assist firefighting efforts. Plus, Bitcoin fell to its lowest since November, and mall brands may be entering a new era.

Elf Labs won historic IP rights to billion-dollar characters like Cinderella, Little Mermaid, and Snow White. Invest today and you’ll also get 20% bonus shares.

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Happy Bonus Season

Wall Street’s bonus season is shaping up to be the most generous since 2021, as investment banks plan double-digit increases to reward top-performing traders and bankers.

Bloomberg reports that Bank of America’s investment bankers and traders in equities and fixed income can expect an average 10% boost in their payouts. At JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, bonuses for traders are expected to rise by more than 10%, while JPMorgan’s investment bankers may see increases of up to 15%.

Goldman Sachs is likely to outpace its rivals, with some trading desks reportedly set to receive bonuses as much as 20% higher than last year.

This surge in payouts comes after two subdued years, where bonuses lagged inflation and M&A activity failed to recover to the pandemic-driven highs of 2020-2021. Despite a modest 10% increase in trading revenue at major banks last year, competition for top talent and an optimistic outlook for 2025 have prompted firms to increase bonus pools significantly.

A November report by Johnson Associates Inc. predicted standout gains for equity underwriters, with bonuses rising up to 25%, and debt underwriters potentially seeing as much as a 35% bump.

Bonus allocations, finalized in late 2024, will start to be communicated to employees as banks kick off earnings season next week.

Takeaway: Wall Street bonuses are as volatile as the markets themselves, closely tied to firm performance and industry trends. Yet, they remain deeply personal—key to retaining talent and keeping bankers from jumping ship to competitors. Here’s to 2025 bringing more gains for bankers and traders, and hopefully fewer awkward conversations about who gets to split the dinner check at Cipriani.

_{PRESENTED BY ELF LABS}

An IP Breakthrough that Rivals Apple and Disney

Imagine what would happen if you combine Disney-level IP with cutting-edge AI and VR tech (no headsets needed).

Meet Elf Labs. 

With 100+ historic trademarks featuring Cinderella, Snow White, and Peter Pan—and powered by 12 groundbreaking tech patents—Elf Labs is revolutionizing immersive entertainment with hyper-realistic 3D worlds and global licensed merchandise.

What’s more? They’re launching three franchises in 2025, backed by a team that's generated $6B+ in licensing deals. 

This is your last chance to invest in some of the highest grossing characters in history before the share price jumps. Invest today and claim 20% bonus shares.

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Top Reads

• Jefferies profit more than triples on investment banking windfall (YF)

• Wall Street expected to shed 200k jobs as AI erodes roles (BB)

• Microsoft confirms performance-based job cuts across departments (CNBC)

• Blackstone to make $300 million investment in AI data company (WSJ)

• Fire may spell an end to cheap homeowners insurance in California (YF)

• Elon Musk says DOGE won’t find $2 trillion in federal budget cuts (CNBC)

• Blackstone’s infrastructure fund for individuals raises more than $1B (BB)

• Bitcoin falls to lowest since Nov. as Trump rally loses steam (YF)

• Cohere sees big AI opportunity in enterprise, away from ChatGPT (CNBC)

• Hochul seeks to limit private equity ownership of homes in New York (NYT) 

• Tesla's easy money from clean car credits at risk under Trump (Axios)

• Nvidia’s tiny $3,000 computer for AI developers steals the show at CES (CNBC)

• Supreme Court set to hear oral arguments on challenge to TikTok ban (CNBC)

• Layoffs hit big media companies (CNN)

• Biden says feds will cover 100% of fire response costs in SoCal (CBS)

• A new era for mall brands? (CNN)

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Markets Rundown

The stock market was closed for a National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter.

Private Dealmaking

• Verdiva Bio, a GLP-1 drugs obesity developer, raised $410 million

• Warburg Pincus invested $300 million in Mashura, a smart cabinets maker

• Aviceda Therapeutics, a biotech focused on chronic inflammation, raised $208 million

• Evergreen Nephrology, a kidney care provider, raised $130 million

• Geneoscopy, a gastrointestinal diagnostics provider, raised $105 million

• Phoenix Tailings, a rare earth developer, raised $44 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

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Real Estate Digest

As the new year kicks off, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage holds steady just below 7%. A strong economy continues to drive mortgage rates higher, compounding challenges to housing affordability alongside rising home prices. Nationwide, the persistent shortage of entry-level homes remains a significant barrier, particularly for aspiring first-time buyers.

Latest News

• How to Tell if Your Home is in a Fire Zone Before Buying

• Brooklyn Home Prices, Sales, Jump in 4th Quarter

• Elite CO-OP’s Are Begrudgingly Accepting LLC’s

• How To Build a Million-Dollar Real Estate Business With New Construction

New Listings

• 251 W 14th St Apt: PENTHOUSE New York, NY: 4 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $11,900,000

• 1000 Ave at Port Imperial, Weehawken Township, NJ: 4 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $3,750,000 

• 11310 Sotogrande Sotogrande, Cádiz Spain: 8 Bed / 9 Bath - $8,100,000

• 58 Clearview Farm Rd Southampton, NY: 8 Bed / 10 Bath - $9,495,000

• PJ7 Pa Klok, Thalang District Thailand: 4 Bed / 5 Bath - $8,000,000

Fill out this form if you're looking to buy, sell, rent or invest.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Mastering Uncertainty

What separates the world’s most successful founders, entrepreneurs, and business leaders from the rest?

It’s not visionary ideas or superhuman intelligence. It’s something more fundamental: their relationship with uncertainty.

Most people are blown off course by unexpected events. Top performers, by contrast, know how to navigate our unpredictable world. Not just that: they know how to thrive in it. You can acquire this essential skill, too.

In Mastering Uncertainty, investor and serial entrepreneur Csaba Konkoly and award-winning business author Matt Watkinson reveal the shortcomings of conventional business thinking and the advantages of developing a “probabilistic” mindset that turns uncertainty from a source of fear into an incredible and exciting advantage.

They offer superbly practical advice on everything from how to handle setbacks and expand your network, to how to spot business opportunities and shape them into successful, growing businesses.

Above all, they show how to think and operate like a great entrepreneur. 

“Every chapter of Mastering Uncertainty is packed with practical advice for how to succeed in our unpredictable world.”

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Price-to-Book Ratio for the S&P 500 at All-Time Highs

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Breath

Breathing the right way can transform your health and well-being.

The ideal breath is 5.5-second inhales and exhales, totaling 5.5 breaths per minute—a rhythm rooted in ancient practices and backed by science for reducing stress and boosting relaxation.

Breathing through your nose enhances oxygen absorption, reduces respiratory risks, and promotes diaphragmatic breathing for better lung capacity and less stress.

To calm your nerves, try left nostril breathing, or for an energy boost, breathe exclusively through your right nostril.

For sharper focus, use box breathing—inhale, hold, exhale, and pause for four seconds each.

These simple, free techniques can reduce stress, enhance energy, and improve mental clarity. Breathe better, live better.

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Short Squeez Picks

• 6 skills every manager should develop

• 5 ways that walking boosts wellbeing

• High-paying jobs that most people don’t want

• 7 ways play builds emotional intelligence

• What the happiest people get right at an early age

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Memes of the Day