šŸ‹ Goldmanā€™s $400M Flop

Goldman expects a $400M hit thanks to a 10% drop in trading revenue, plus Apollo is dropping a private credit ETF.

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ā€œSuccess in investing doesnā€™t correlate with IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble.ā€ ā€” Warren Buffett

Good Morning! August's CPI report drops today, with investors anticipating slower inflation. Fed rolled out long-awaited, toned-down banking regulationsā€”a win for Wall Street. Apollo is teaming up with State Street to launch a private credit ETF, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says succession planning is his top priority, and Bridgewater is opening its first-ever NYC office. Plus, according to our official poll, 57% of people think Kamala Harris won the debate, while 27% believe Trump did, and 16% called it a tie. (Clearly, though, the real winner of the night were the memes)

Wall Street's newest hack? Mosaic, the tool that takes you from CIM to LBO in just 5 minutes (with zero errors). See it in action here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Goldmanā€™s $400M Flop

Goldman announces earnings next month, but CEO David Solomon is already tampering expectations. He warned investors of a $400 million pretax hit to Q3 results due to the bankā€™s troubled consumer business unwind. Goldmanā€™s stock dropped 4.4% on the news.

The losses stem from the bankā€™s messy exit from the credit card business, particularly the struggling GM credit card deal. Accusations of loose lending standards and reliance on third-party platforms like Credit Karma brought in low-credit borrowers, worsening the situation.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been investigating Goldmanā€™s credit card practices since 2022.

Goldmanā€™s plan to offload the GM portfolio to Barclays has stalled, with negotiations dragging and charge-off rates climbing. Borrowers arenā€™t paying, and the deal is reportedly on thin ice.

On top of this, Solomon acknowledged trading revenues are expected to drop by 10%, adding more pressure to the bankā€™s bottom line.

Takeaway: Goldman is banking on its investment banking division to rescue its Q3 earnings. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon, which could boost M&A activity. Despite the challenges, Goldmanā€™s stock is up 27% this year, with the bank refocusing on deal-making and wealth management for growth. At this rate, Goldman might just wish it had stuck to serving the 1%ā€”and left the credit cards to the pros at Visa.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • August CPI is expected to reflect slower inflation (YF)

  • Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulations (CNBC)

  • Putin would ā€˜eat you for lunchā€™ Harris tells Trump (CNBC)

  • Apollo will start a private credit ETF with State Street (YF)

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says succession is his most important task (YF)

  • Bridgewater nears deal for first NYC office (BB)

  • Streaming deals are key to future of NFL viewership, fandom (CNBC)

  • Jamie Dimon says the worst outcome is stagflation (CNBC)

  • Bank of America is raising minimum wage for workers (Axios)

  • Apollo-backed software maker Edgio seeks bankruptcy protection (YF)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

S&P 500 shrugs off recession concerns as tech rebounds.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Mission Produce ($AVO) +22% after the avocado producer beat revenue projections.

  • (+) Oracle ($ORCL) +11% after the tech company reported an earnings beat.

  • (ā€“) Ally Financial ($ALLY) -18% after the companyā€™s CEO said credit challenges are growing.

Private Dealmaking

  • Candid Therapeutics, a biotech focused on T cell engagers, raised $370 million

  • Glean, an AI enterprise search startup, raised over $260 million

  • NBT Bancorp bought Evans Bancorp for $236 million

  • Forterra, a self-driving tech developer, raised $75 million

  • Formo, a vegan cheese developer, raised $61 million

  • Form3, a payment tech startup, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Source Code

The business triumphs of Bill Gates are widely known: the twenty-year-old who dropped out of Harvard to start a software company that became an industry giant and changed the way the world works and lives; the billionaire many times over who turned his attention to philanthropic pursuits to address climate change, global health, and U.S. education.

Source Code is not about Microsoft or the Gates Foundation or the future of technology. Itā€™s the human, personal story of how Bill Gates became who he is today: his childhood, his early passions and pursuits.

Itā€™s the story of his principled grandmother and ambitious parents, his first deep friendships and the sudden death of his best friend; of his struggles to fit in and his discovery of a world of coding and computers in the dawn of a new era; of embarking in his early teens on a path that took him from midnight escapades at a nearby computer center to his college dorm room, where he sparked a revolution that would change the world.

Bill Gates tells this, his own story, for the first time: wise, warm, revealing, itā€™s a fascinating portrait of an American life.

ā€œThe origin story of one of the most influential and transformative business leaders and philanthropists of the modern age.ā€

DAILY VISUAL

40% US Homes Without Mortgage

Source: Apollo

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DAILY ACUMEN

Sleep

Sleep is more than just a break from wakefulness; it is a vital ally in fostering creativity and cognitive flexibility. Take, for instance, the story of Paul McCartney, who famously composed the melody for "Yesterday," one of The Beatles' most iconic songs, in a dream.

McCartney awoke with the tune fully formed in his mind, proving that sleep is a time when our brains work behind the scenes to weave creative ideas together.

Research shows that during sleep, particularly in slow-wave stages, the brain consolidates memories and forms connections between seemingly unrelated ideasā€”an essential process for creative problem-solving.

Insufficient sleep not only impairs cognitive function but also diminishes our ability to think flexibly and make sound decisions. Successful creative minds like McCartney have embraced rest as a critical tool to recharge and enhance their creative capabilities.

To harness the full potential of the sleep-creativity cycle, consider adopting habits like consistent sleep schedules, reducing screen time before bed, and creating a restful sleep environment. Remember, a good night's sleep isn't just a luxury; it could be where your next big idea is born.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

 

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