Good Morning! The IPO window is rapidly opening - putting investment bankers back to work. And U.S. banks have seen their profits jump 80% in the past quarter. Trump is weighing an advisory role for Elon Musk if he’s re-elected. Wall Street’s outlook for stocks keeps getting better and better. A former Goldman exec will lead the Cleveland Fed, and a new app gives the real-time location of the NYC subway. Plus the most innovative companies of 2024, and how to translate Wall Street jargon.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Dimon Sounds Alarm on Private Credit

Jamie Dimon is speaking out about the private credit industry. And it sounds like, from his perspective, the industry might already be too big to fail.

He spoke at a conference yesterday and he said, if the private credit industry starts showing cracks, “there could be hell to pay.”

The private credit market has grown rapidly over the past few years, approaching almost $2 trillion (compared to just $875B in 2020). Although returns have surpassed those of the S&P 500, the full extent of the risks in the industry remains uncertain.

Dimon specifically pointed out that a lot of these private credit deals got suspect ratings - and he even says it reminds him a little bit of mortgages. 

At the same time - Dimon says there are tons of “brilliant” players in the space and that private credit is crucial in filling needs for companies overlooked by larger banks. J.P. Morgan wants to acquire a private credit firm, and has also put aside $10 billion of its own balance sheet for direct lending.

Takeaway: Dimon pointed out that, while there are a lot of people doing good in the private credit industry - not everyone in the industry is good. And, most of the time, it’s the ‘not good’ people causing issues that you have to worry about. Some key risks in the private credit space? We’re not sure how many of these assets are illiquid or improperly stress-tested. And you’re not alone in thinking this may sound like 2008 all over again.

_{PRESENTED BY MERCURY}

Your Bank Account¹ Should Do More Than Just Hold Your Money

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You have to cobble together a patchwork of tools that don’t integrate with each other, wasting time and leading to errors. And lots of headaches. 

That’s why 200k startups use Mercury. Mercury combines powerful software with your bank account, streamlining your financial operations so you can grow. 

• Simplify bill pay, company spend, and reconciliation

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• Earn 5.00% yield on cash²

• Financing options to fuel your growth

• 20x the industry standard in FDIC insurance³

Apply in 10 minutes and try Mercury’s workflows at no cost until August 1st. 

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• The IPO window is open (Axios)

• U.S. bank profits jumped 80% last quarter (YF)

• Trump weighing White House advisory role for Elon Musk (Axios)

• Why Wall Street’s outlook for stocks keeps getting better (YF)

• Former Goldman Sachs exec to lead the Cleveland Fed (Axios)

• What’s really happening with grocery prices right now (Vox)

• PwC to become OpenAI’s first reseller and largest enterprise user (CNBC)

• New app gives real-time NYC subway train locations (Pix)

• Study names the most innovative U.S. companies (Fox)

• Weight-loss drug forecasts jump to $150 billion as supply grows (Reuters)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed lower as yields soar.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Chewy ($CHWY) +6% after an earnings beat, signs pet adoption is up.

• (+) Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF) +24% after posting a surge in sales growth.

• (–) GameStop ($GME) -11% after the company’s share sale.

Private Dealmaking

• ConocoPhillips to acquire Marathon Oil for $17.1 billion

• Merck bought EyeBio, an eye disease drug developer, for $3 billion

• Johnson & Johnson bought an antibodies drug from Numab for $1.25 billion 

• KKR bought a minority stake in Labrador Island Link, a clean energy transmission project, for $870 million

• Blackstone Real Estate sold Turtle Bay Resort for $725 million

• TransDigm bought Raptor Scientific, an acquisition platform, for $655 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Data Detective

Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.”

If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.

As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers.

In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world.

As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.

“We often find ways to dismiss evidence that we don’t like. And the opposite is true, too: when evidence seems to support our preconceptions, we are less likely to look too closely for flaws.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

This Economy Is Not Slowing Down

Continued strong earnings growth points to higher capex spending ahead

_{PRESENTED BY KALSHI}

Sam Altman’s Second Exit?

Speculation surrounds Sam Altman's future as CEO of OpenAI, with traders on Kalshi predicting a 17% chance he'll be out by year's end. 

Former board member Helen Toner alleged Altman misled the board about AI safety and ChatGPT’s launch, only informing them after the fact. Toner also claimed he failed to disclose his ownership of the OpenAI Startup Fund.

Despite these issues, Altman returned as CEO following an employee revolt and investor intervention. OpenAI has since established a new safety oversight unit.

Are you "long" on Altman staying or believe he’ll step down this year? Head over to Kalshi to make your prediction on Sam Altman's future at OpenAI.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Extraordinary Results

Extraordinary results often stem from performing ordinary tasks exceptionally well over an extended period. Take writing, for example.

Anyone can write a few paragraphs, but true excellence comes from consistent practice and dedication to refining your craft.

Committing to daily improvement, year after year, transforms simple efforts into remarkable achievements.

This principle applies universally, whether in writing, business, or personal growth.

Focus on mastering the basics, and over time, your persistence will yield extraordinary outcomes.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• The choice paradox

• How did owners fund their restaurant?

• Translating Wall Street jargon

• How I think about debt

• Home upgrades you didn’t know you needed

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day

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