Good Morning! Stock futures jumped after Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Fed Chair Powell and that China tariffs “will come down substantially.”

Tesla posted disastrous earnings but still rose 5% after-hours as Elon pledged to focus on Tesla over DOGE. Chobani is building a $1.2 billion dairy mega-factory. Boeing sold its Jeppesen unit to Thoma Bravo for $11.5 billion.

Plus: NFL QB Josh Allen joined VC firm Cashmere, consultants made $20B in concessions to appease DOGE, and Cantor Fitzgerald is closing in on a $3B crypto venture with SoftBank and Tether.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

China’s Private Equity Breakup

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, calling the current status quo “unsustainable.” But while diplomatic hopes linger, Beijing is taking a more aggressive stance where it matters most to Wall Street: capital flows.

China has long been a critical capital provider to major U.S. private equity firms. Over the past several decades, Chinese sovereign wealth funds, particularly the China Investment Corporation (CIC), have served as key limited partners to megafunds like Blackstone, Carlyle, and TPG. Steve Schwarzman even credited Chinese support as essential to Blackstone’s 2007 IPO.

That era may be ending.

In recent weeks, China has suspended outbound investments into U.S. private equity, with CIC and other state-linked institutions pulling commitments from U.S.-based funds.

The directive reportedly comes from the top, as Chinese policymakers look to reduce financial exposure to Washington amid worsening geopolitical tensions and an intensifying tariff war.

It’s a major blow for firms like Thoma Bravo, Vista, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many of which have grown accustomed to Chinese institutional backing. During Trump’s first term, a cross-border private equity fund co-piloted by Goldman Sachs and CIC symbolized cooperation. Now, it’s starting to look like a relic of a different era.

Takeaway: Private markets, while less obvious, haven’t been safe from Trump’s trade war either. China is weaponizing capital flows as tools of geopolitical influence, and that’s bad news if you run a PE firm. While Bessent remains optimistic about a reset, the relationship may already be beyond repair. Looks like the only thing getting marked up right now is geopolitical risk.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Fed Chair Powell (CNBC)

• Elon Musk says he's taking a step back from DOGE (Axios)

• Bessent sees de-escalation with China, says goal isn’t to decouple (CNBC)

• U.S. stocks rebound as gold hits record high (CNN)

• Tesla reports 20% drop in auto revenue (CNBC)

• Chobani to spend $1.2B on New York dairy factory (FD)

• Tesla short sellers have made $11.5B from this year’s sell-off (CNBC)

• Ryan Cohen must face shareholder lawsuit from BBBY stake sale (NYP)

• Boeing sold its Jeppesen unit to Thoma Bravo for $10.6B (YF)

• Wall Street keeps warning of a sell America trade (YF) 

• Fake job seekers are flooding the market thanks to AI (CBS)

• Josh Allen joins VC firm Cashmere (Axios)

• IMF sees Trump tariffs undercutting U.S. growth (Axios)

• Tariffs hang heavy over ad market (Axios)

• Consulting firms offer a combined $20B in savings to federal contracts (WSJ)

• Goldman CEO pay hinges on whether Goldman is just another bank (BB)

• Cantor in talks on $3 billion crypto SPAC with Tether, SoftBank (BB)

• Jamie Dimon says kill meetings and corporate jargon (YF)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks rose sharply: Financial and consumer discretionary stocks led gains, signaling a risk-on tone.

• Bond yields dipped; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.40%.

• Asia markets mixed; Europe closed higher after ECB President Lagarde said disinflation is nearing completion.

• U.S. dollar advanced against major currencies.

• WTI oil traded higher as U.S. issued new sanctions on Iran crude.

• S&P 500 earnings strong: 76% of reporting companies beat estimates, with a 6.2% average upside surprise.

• S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth revised to 6.9%, with seven sectors expected to grow year-over-year.

• Services expansion should offset manufacturing contraction, supporting labor market and consumer spending.

Reported Earnings

• Tesla (TSLA): Missed EPS and revenue estimates; deliveries and operating income dropped significantly year-over-year.

• 3M Company (MMM): Beat EPS and revenue estimates; stock rose pre-market with slight year-over-year revenue growth.

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Beat EPS and revenue estimates; stock fell due to a softer 2025 procedure growth outlook.

Upcoming Earnings

• Boeing (BA): Focus on production challenges and delivery delays amid ongoing scrutiny.

• AT&T (T): Expected to reflect steady subscriber growth and cost management trends.

• IBM (IBM): Investors eyeing cloud growth and AI contributions amid enterprise demand shifts.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) CoreWeave ($CRVW) +9% after Jefferies initiated coverage with a buy.

• (+) 3M ($MMM) +8% because the conglomerate posted an earnings beat.

• (–) RTX ($RTX) -10% after the defense company expects a tariff impact.

Private Dealmaking

• Boeing sold its Jeppesen unit to Thoma Bravo for $10.6 billion

• Barrick Gold sold a 50% stake in Donlin Gold for $1 billion

• Supabase, a database management system, raised $200 million

• Manychat, an e-commerce service provider, raised $140 million

• Electra, a hybrid electric aircraft maker, raised $115 million

• Biolinq, a glucose monitoring device developer, raised $100 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Caesars Palace Coup

In the tradition of Barbarians at the Gate and The Big Short comes the riveting, multi-dimensional poker game between private equity firms and distressed debt hedge funds that played out from the Vegas Strip to Manhattan boardrooms to Chicago courthouses and even, for a moment, the halls of the United States Congress.

On one side: relentless financial engineers Marc Rowan, David Sambur, and David Bonderman with their teams at Apollo Global Management and TPG Capital.

On the other: superstar distressed debt investors Dave Miller and Ryan Mollett with their cohorts at the likes of Elliott Management, Oaktree Capital, and Appaloosa Management.

The Caesars bankruptcy put a twist on the old-fashioned casino heist.

Through a $27 billion leveraged buyout and a dizzying string of financial engineering transactions, Apollo and TPG—in the midst of the post-Great Recession slump—had seemingly snatched every prime asset of the company from creditors, with the notable exception of Caesars Palace.

But Caesars’ hedge fund lenders and bondholders had scooped up the company’s paper for nickels and dimes.

And with their own armies of lawyers and bankers, they were ready to do everything necessary to take back what they believed was theirs—if they could just stop their own infighting.

These modern financiers now dominate the scene in Corporate America as their fight-to-the-death mentality continues to shock workers, politicians, and broader society—and even each other.

In The Caesars Palace Coup, financial journalists Max Frumes and Sujeet Indap illuminate the brutal tactics of distressed debt mavens—vultures, as they are condemned—in the sale and purchase of even the biggest companies in the world with billions of dollars hanging in the balance.

“The bankruptcy brawl for the storied casino giant, Caesars Entertainment, pitted brilliant and ruthless private equity legends against the world's most relentless hedge fund wizards.”

DAILY VISUAL

Gold Sees More Inflows

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DAILY ACUMEN

AI’s Dual Impact

AI boosts productivity, with 54% of users reporting faster work and 42% feeling more creative, acting as a tireless assistant for tasks like research and brainstorming.

Many engage in regular conversations with AI, with 65% having spoken interactions and 34% doing so weekly, often feeling smarter as a result.

However, 50% feel lazy relying on AI, 35% feel like they’re cheating, and 33% worry about dependency, with 23% making major mistakes due to over-reliance.

This paradox highlights AI’s role in reshaping how we think and work, balancing empowerment with unease about effort and authenticity.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Are you really a good listener?

• 6 signs you’re better looking than you think

• 2 tips to boost resilience

• How first-time managers can make the successful jump to leadership

• How to transform your day with time management

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