Good Morning! Trump’s social media group is in talks to buy crypto exchange Bakkt. Spirit Airlines officially filed for bankruptcy after failing to find a suitor. Luxury companies are having their worst year since 2009, Nvidia is dealing with overheating chip issues, and Apple plans to launch a new AirTag next year that addresses privacy concerns.

Plus, Goldman thinks gold will rally to record in 2025, HSBC managers are reinterviewing for their positions, and NYC's congestion pricing is back in the spotlight.

Is the Fed going to cut rates next month? Place your market bets on Kalshi.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Blackstone’s $8B Jersey Mike’s Deal

Private-equity giant Blackstone is on the verge of acquiring Jersey Mike’s Subs in a deal valued at approximately $8 billion, inclusive of debt.

This acquisition positions Blackstone to expand its already significant footprint in the franchise and restaurant sectors. Discussions have been ongoing throughout the year, and a formal announcement could be imminent but still not confirmed.

Jersey Mike’s, headquartered in Manasquan, New Jersey, has grown substantially since its inception as a single sandwich shop on the Jersey Shore in 1956. Peter Cancro, who began working at the shop at the age of 14 and later purchased it in 1975, transformed the business into a franchising powerhouse during the 1980s.

Under Cancro’s leadership as CEO, the chain has expanded to over 3,000 locations nationwide, making it the second-largest sub-style sandwich chain in the U.S. by sales, trailing only Subway. Peter Cancro remains optimistic about Jersey Mike’s future, projecting expansion to 4,000 locations and $6.5 billion in sales by 2027.

The acquisition aligns with Blackstone’s strategy of investing in scalable franchise operations that promise growth without significant capital expenditure. This strategy has yielded impressive results in the past, such as its landmark investment in Hilton Hotels. Blackstone’s portfolio also includes stakes in 7 Brew Coffee, Servpro, and Tropical Smoothie Cafe.

Takeaway: Blackstone’s move comes at a time when consolidation is accelerating in the restaurant industry as restaurant operators face pressures from changing consumer spending patterns. Recent deals include Roark Capital’s $9.6 billion acquisition of Subway and Darden Restaurants’ purchase of Chuy’s for $605 million. This trend may likely continue but let’s just hope we don’t have to pay $30 for our Jersey Mike’s subs anytime soon.

_{PRESENTED BY KALSHI}

Will the Fed Cut Rates in December?

December’s Fed meeting is shaping up to be a game-changer. With Trump’s re-election shaking the economy back into action and crypto surging, all eyes are on Powell’s next move.

Currently prediction traders on Kalshi are predicting a 63% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps in December. What do you think?

Make your rate cut predictions on Kalshi today.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Fintech unicorns are watching Klarna’s debut for signs of when IPO window will reopen (CNBC)

• Donald Trump’s social media group in talks to buy crypto trading venue (YF)

• Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy (CNBC)

• Apple’s next AirTag is coming in 2025 with privacy improvements (YF)

• Luxury faces worst year since '09 (Fortune)

• New Nvidia AI chips have issue with overheating (YF)

• Cloud software company ServiceTitan files to go public on Nasdaq (CNBC)

• Tesla stock jumps as Trump team backs self-driving cars (YF)

• HSBC managers are competing to keep their jobs (Fortune)

• 'Oracle of Wall Street' says home prices need to fall 20% (YF)

• MTA seeks speedy approval for NYC's congestion pricing tolls (Gothamist)

• Goldman thinks gold will rally to record in 2025 (YF)

• Elon Musk wants Trump to disrupt Wall Street with his Treasury pick (CNN)

• MicroStrategy taps stock market to fund record $4.6 billion Bitcoin buy (YF)

• LeBron James’ SpringHill to merge with ‘The Kardashians’ producer Fulwell 73 (CNBC)

• Trump's victory sparks consumer confidence surge (Axios)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Kick Off the Week Higher: Major equity markets rose Monday, recovering some ground lost last week. Energy and communication services stocks led the gains, reflecting broad sector performance.

Overseas, Asian markets were mixed, with investors eyeing the Bank of China's interest-rate decision on Wednesday and Japan's inflation data on Friday.

In commodities, WTI oil climbed after an escalation in Ukraine and production disruptions in Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies.

All Eyes on NVIDIA as Earnings Season Wraps Up: AI powerhouse NVIDIA will report its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with expectations of $0.75 per share.

Overall, corporate earnings for the quarter have been strong: 92% of companies have reported, with 5.4% year-over-year growth. Impressively, 74% of firms have beaten analyst estimates, with seven of 11 sectors showing earnings growth.

The weaker-performing sectors—energy, industrials, materials, and utilities—make up just 17% of the S&P 500's market cap, limiting their drag on broader earnings momentum.

Bond Yields Retreat Slightly: Treasury yields edged lower, pausing their upward march of recent weeks.

The 10-year Treasury yield, now about 80 basis points higher since its September low, has been influenced by reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and rising inflation expectations, which sit at 2.35% over the next decade (measured by the gap between Treasury and TIPS yields).

As the labor market normalizes and inflation continues to moderate, the Fed appears on track to gradually lower rates, though the pace may slow as economic conditions stabilize.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Robinhood Markets ($HOOD) +8% because of pro-crypto sentiment for the fintech company.

• (+) Tesla ($TSLA) +6% after Trump will relax rules on self-driving cars.

• (–) Uber Technologies ($UBER) -5% because Uber could be a threat to the robotaxi.

Private Dealmaking

• Nordic Capital bought Anaqua, an IP management software provider, for $2.5 billion

• The Exploration Co. a reusable cargo developer, raised $160 million

• Radiant, an El Segundo, Calif., maker of portable nuclear generators, raised $100 million

• ScaleOps, an Israeli cloud resource management startup, raised $58 million

• Elicit Plant, a drought-resistant crops developer, raised $48 million

• Fleek, a secondhand clothing marketplace, raised $20.4 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Reset

Changing how we work can feel overwhelming. Like trying to budge an enormous boulder. We’re stifled by the gravity of the way we’ve always done things. And we spend so much time fighting fires—and fighting colleagues—that we lack the energy to shift direction.

But with the right strategy, we can move the boulder. In Reset, Heath explores a framework for getting unstuck and making the changes that matter. The secret is to find “leverage points”: places where a little bit of effort can yield a disproportionate return. Then, we can thoughtfully rearrange our resources to push on those points.

Heath weaves together fascinating examples, ranging from a freakishly effective fast-food drive-thru to a simple trick from couples therapy to an inspirational campaign that saved a million cats.

“Flat out amazing.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

WBD Rebound

_{PRESENTED BY OPTIFINO}

How Permanent Life Insurance Can Build Wealth, Cover Estate Tax, and More

Permanent life insurance (PLI) is more than just a safety net—it’s a tool for growing wealth accessible in your lifetime, deferring taxes, and enhancing your estate plan. But here’s the catch: most agents push policies based on their own preferences, not your goals.

In this live AMA, Optifino will break down how different PLI options can work for you, whether you’re looking to:

• Compound wealth with tax-deferred growth

• Secure tax-free income for retirement

• Create liquidity for real estate or investment opportunities

• Reduce or eliminate estate taxes

• Cover long-term care costs

Join other Short Squeez readers in learning how to align your insurance policy with your financial goals.*

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Optimal Rate of Failure

In many fields, including business, science, and innovation, there is an idea called the "optimal rate of failure." It sounds counterintuitive at first—why would we want failure at all? But, the concept suggests that failing the right amount is actually key to long-term success and growth.

If you're never failing, it likely means you're not pushing boundaries or trying anything innovative. You might be playing it too safe—sticking with what’s comfortable and predictable.

On the other hand, if you're failing too often, it might be a sign that your approach lacks focus, preparation, or understanding of the risks. Somewhere in between these extremes lies the optimal rate—often thought to be around 10-20% failure for startups or experiments.

For example, venture capitalists expect most of their investments to fail. They understand that a few big successes will make up for those losses many times over. Similarly, in product development, teams that experience some level of failure are those that learn the most—using failures as insights that steer them towards what works.

The optimal rate of failure is about embracing calculated risks, learning from mistakes, and ensuring that each failure brings valuable lessons that inform the next attempt.

It’s about staying just uncomfortable enough to continue growing without losing momentum entirely. Success isn’t just about avoiding failure—it’s about having the courage to fail smartly, using those failures as stepping stones to reach greater heights.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 5 phrases to strengthen your relationship with your manager

• How to get better at finishing things

• 10 things successful people never do in their free time

• Why we should cheer for life’s wobbles

• Signs you will get the job after the interview

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day