Good Morning! Congrats to the Eagles on winning the Super Bowl. Trump is planning on dropping 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum today, and ordered the Treasury to stop penny production.

Musk ruled out buying TikTok and BP is being targeted by an activist investor. Trader Joe’s is capping egg sales, while Americans plan to drop $28 billion on Valentine’s Day ($190 per person).

Plus, 15% of the HBS class of 2024 is still unemployed, the era of sustainable investing is over and 40% would take pay cut to keep WFH.

Boost your portfolio with private credit—download Heron Finance’s free ebook (no email required).

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Morgan Stanley’s Mid-Life Crisis

Morgan Stanley used to be Wall Street royalty when it came to advising companies on billion-dollar deals. But the latest numbers tell a different story: JPMorgan Chase and boutique bank Evercore now generate more M&A advisory fees than Ted Pick’s firm.

In 2023, JPMorgan raked in $3.29 billion in advisory fees, Evercore pulled $2.45 billion, and Morgan Stanley trailed with $2.38 billion. Even in Q4, JPMorgan ($1.06 billion) and Evercore ($850 million) left Morgan Stanley ($779 million) in the dust.

So what happened?

Morgan Stanley pivoted hard to wealth management, prioritizing stable, recurring revenue over the feast-or-famine world of dealmaking. Under ex-CEO James Gorman, the firm made a strategic shift, acquiring E*Trade and Eaton Vance to bulk up its asset management business. That move won over investors but meant fewer resources for its investment banking division.

Meanwhile JPMorgan, historically seen as a lending powerhouse, has aggressively pushed for advisory business by leveraging its vast corporate relationships. CEO Jamie Dimon even personally lobbies big clients.

Evercore, on the other hand, has thrived as an M&A “elite” boutique, winning major mandates like the $29 billion sale of Calpine to Constellation Energy. By avoiding capital-intensive businesses like trading and lending, it has remained laser-focused on high-margin advisory deals.

And it’s not just Evercore taking advantage of the power shift—Jefferies is making moves too, pulling in $1.8 billion in advisory fees last year, outpacing Bank of America and Citigroup after a hiring spree.

Takeaway: Morgan Stanley’s new CEO, Ted Pick, was an investment banker himself, so there’s hope for a comeback. But with M&A being a long game—deals today are often the result of relationships built years ago—Morgan Stanley has serious ground to make up, and needs to do more than just pick a banker as CEO—it needs to start acting like one.

_{PRESENTED BY HERON}

The Private Credit Playbook

Private credit has quietly become one of the fastest-growing asset classes according to McKinsey & Co, and it’s not stopping. The largest pension funds increased allocations by over 50%. Why? They’re generating higher yields (often 10%+) and lower volatility than traditional income-generating assets.*

Heron Finance’s free ebook breaks down:

• Private Credit Strategies: The pros and cons of different approaches.

• Finding the Right Fit: Which private credit assets align with your investing style?

• Portfolio Allocation: How much should you invest in private credit?

No email required—just insights on how private credit can diversify your portfolio and generate passive income.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Trump says he will announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs Monday (YF)

• Trump directs Treasury to stop minting new pennies, citing cost (CBS)

• Musk rules out buying TikTok (BB)

• Eagles rout Chiefs to win Super Bowl (NYT)

• BP targeted by activist investor (CNBC)

• Americans expected to spend a pretty penny on Valentine's Day this year (Fox)

• Super Bowl ads feature celebs, AI (LI)

• U.S. added 143,000 jobs in January, jobless rate drops (Axios)

• Unemployment rate falls to 4%, wages rise more than forecast (YF)

• The heyday of sustainable investing is over (Axios)

• Softbank set to invest $40B in OpenAI at $260B valuation (CNBC)

• Trader Joe’s sets purchase limit on eggs nationwide (SYR)

• The unkillable carried interest tax loophole (Axios)

• Best US cities that won't break your honeymoon bank (Fox)

• 40% would take pay cut to keep WFH (HBS)

• CFPB staff told to work remotely as headquarters shuttered (CNBC)

• Blackstone safely stays in its own high-speed lane (Reuters)

• HBS graduates face a tough job market (Crimson)

• Investors take aim at NBA with plans to create $5B basketball league (NYP)

• The private equity enforcer wrangling Musk's merry band of youngsters (DB)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Markets Decline on Inflation Concerns

U.S. stocks closed lower Friday as inflation worries weighed on sentiment, though the S&P 500 remains up 2.5% year-to-date. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.49%, while oil prices climbed on new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

January job growth slowed to 143,000, missing expectations, but upward revisions added 100,000 jobs to prior months. Unemployment dipped to 4.0%, and wages rose 4.1% annualized, fueling concerns over inflation and potential Fed policy delays.

Consumer sentiment fell for a second month, with inflation expectations rising. Uncertainty over tariffs remains, though their economic impact could be offset by currency shifts and trade negotiations.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Pinterest ($PINS) +19% after strong user growth; AI catalysts.

• (+) Expedia ($EXPE) +17% because of strong earnings for the travel company.

• (–) Amazon ($AMZN) -4% after the firm gave disappointing guidance for the current quarter.

Private Dealmaking

• Bain Capital bought the pharma unit of Mitsubishi Chemical for $3.3 billion

• Blackstone bought AI Fire, a fire safety equipment provider, for $1.1 billion

• X-energy, a small modular reactors developer, raised $200 million

• Tidal Vision, a green chemistry startup, raised $140 million

• Fay, a digital nutritional therapy company, raised $50 million

• 7ai, an agentic security platform, raised $36 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH}

Real Estate Digest

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped this week after holding flat for the past two weeks. Over the last month, rates have remained relatively stable, reflecting the economy's solid footing. While rates are still higher year-over-year, purchase applications have edged up slightly compared to this time last year, signaling growing demand in the market.

Latest News

• Do Interest Rates Even Matter Anymore?

• Five Most Overvalued Housing Markets in 2025

• NYC Office Demand Is Finally Back to Normal

• Global Hedge Funds Dump Everything but Real Estate Stocks

• NYC’s Waldorf Astoria Closes On its First Sales After Renovation 

• Luxury Sales Surge near Mar-A-Lago

New Listings

• 16 Crosby St Apt: Ph5F New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2.5 Bath -  $5,250,000

• 158 Norris Ln Bridgehampton, NY: 5 Bed / 5.5 Bath - $5,795,000

• 1418 S Miami Ave Apt: 6204 Miami, FL: 4 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $6,433,900 

• 28823 Ghiffa Lesa, Piedmont 28040 Italy: 5 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $7,600,000

• Cap Estate Rodney Bay, Gros Islet Saint Lucia: 6 Bed / 9 Bath - $3,750,000

Fill out this form to get personalized support for buying, selling, renting, or investing in real estate.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

How To Win At Travel

In How to Win at Travel, Brian Kelly shares his greatest tips and strategies to experience the world in ways you never thought possible. This compre­hensive guide is a road map with all of the knowledge and tools you need to become an expert traveler.

Get practical advice on a range of topics, including how to find the cheapest flights; effectively leverage airline, hotel, and credit card loyalty programs; conquer your fear of flying; beat jet lag; and score free flights and upgrades.

Kelly also covers the ins and outs of travel insurance and getting the right credit cards to make your travel more affordable and enjoyable. He discusses the art of dealing with travel mishaps, speaks to the technology you need to manage modern travel, and shares ideas for pinpointing the best destination for you.

Whether you’re a young adult traveling solo, a road warrior business traveler, a growing family looking for new experiences, or a retiree ready to explore the world, reach for this guide to plan an unforgettable trip. Easy to read, informative, and inspirational, How to Win at Travel is the definitive travel guide for your next adventure, no matter how big or small.

“Brian Kelly changed how we travel—there is no other way to put it.” 

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Months from Final Rate Cut to First Rate Hike

_{PRESENTED BY ELF LABS}

The Biggest Disruption to IP Since Disney–Only 3 Days Left to Invest

Fun fact: Disney’s princess IP has generated over $46.4B in revenue!

Here’s another: Elf Labs secured 100+ historic trademarks for characters like Cinderella, Little Mermaid, Snow White, and Rapunzel! Now, they’re using advanced patented tech to bring them to life in your living room. Think headset-free VR and AI-powered talking toys.

Now get this, they are launching three new princess franchises in 2025—two already funded—and are backed by a team that’s closed over $6B in licensing deals throughout their careers.

But here’s the catch—only limited shares remain. The company has seen record demand, and their round closes February 12th.** 

Invest now to lock in your shares.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Junk Food

Junk food's grip on our minds is more sinister than we think.

A groundbreaking study has exposed the shocking truth behind junk food's addictive nature, revealing how it is often engineered to manipulate our brain's reward centers, specifically by flooding them with dopamine, creating an unstoppable cycle of craving and consumption.

By manipulating our brain chemistry, particularly through the combination of high levels of sugar, salt, and fat, junk food makes us more prone to overeating, with individuals predisposed to obesity being especially vulnerable, and potentially leading to a cascade of health issues like diabetes, heart disease, and more.

The more we indulge, the more we crave, trapped in a vicious cycle that's hard to escape, often feeling powerless against the intense cravings. 

Understanding this mechanism is the first step. 

Start by becoming more mindful of your cravings. 

Try swapping processed snacks for whole foods, even small changes can make a big difference.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Can positive thinking really help you live longer?

• The one communication skill that improves relationships at work

• 7 simple phrases that make people instantly feel comfortable around you

• Where to buy work clothes that won’t crush your soul

• 5 mobility exercises for people who haven’t exercised in a long time

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day