Good Morning! Welcome to the monetary easing era - Fed is expected announce its first rate cut in 4 years today. Steve Cohen is stepping down from the trading floor after over 3 decades. Meanwhile, a judge ruled that Trump Media breached a stock contract with an early investor. The $36 billion Archegos saga isn’t over quite yet, with the DOJ probing banks for collusion. Microsoft and BlackRock announced a partnership to invest $100 billion in AI data centers. Plus dealmakers are skeptical that M&A will pick up after the election.

For access to the most coveted rolodex on Wall Street, Puck’s Dry Powder is a must read for anybody even loosely connected to the capital markets. Take 20% off your first year here.

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Apple 🤝 JPMorgan

Over the past decade, JPMorgan has emerged as a key competitor to Goldman Sachs, and it may now be on the verge of another big win—taking over the AppleCard.

Apple recently ended its partnership with Goldman, after the bank’s attempt to build a consumer business resulted in billions of losses. Now, JPMorgan is reportedly in talks to take over the credit card program.

The discussions are still in the early stages, with the deal potentially months away. But JPMorgan is already negotiating key terms, such as seeking a discount on the $17 billion in outstanding loans due to higher-than-expected losses in the AppleCard portfolio.

Despite the early stage of talks, JPMorgan seems well-positioned for the win, as it already has a strong relationship with Apple, offering Chase customers deals on Apple products.

Other contenders for the AppleCard program include Synchrony Financial, Capital One, and American Express, but JPMorgan, America’s largest bank and the biggest credit card issuer by volume, appears to be the frontrunner.

Takeaway: If JPMorgan wins this deal, it’s going to cement the bank’s dominance on both Wall Street and Main Street. JPMorgan already has the biggest credit card business in the country through Chase, and JPMorgan could pitch AppleCard’s 12 million users on more financial products. If you work on Wall Street, you know JPMorgan is good at winning deals - and we’d bet they have a good shot at winning this one.  

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The Newsletter Wall Street Can’t Stop Forwarding

Everybody on Wall Street reads Bill’s private newsletter, Dry Powder, religiously.

As a former investment banker, Bill has unparalleled access. Recent correspondences include Warren Buffett, David Solomon, and Leon Black. If you’re even loosely connected to the capital markets, Bill is essential reading.

We’re celebrating three years of Puck this month! Take 20% off an annual membership for unlimited access Bill and the rest of Puck.

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Top Reads

• Billionaire Steve Cohen steps away from trading for Point72 hedge fund (NYP)

• Judge rules Trump Media breached stock contract with early investor (CNBC)

• Justice Department probing banks for collusion in $36B Archegos liquidation (NYP)

• Tech dealmakers skeptical that M&A will pick up after election (CNBC)

• Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100B for AI data center investments (CNBC)

• Retail sales rise in August as consumers keep spending (Axios)

• DOT clears $1.9 billion airline merger (Skift)

• What no spend September is and how to know if you should participate (CNBC)

• Jerome Powell sidesteps politics to oversee likely central bank rate cut (YF)

• Whole Foods to open new smaller format store in NYC (Pix)

• US home builder confidence edges up as rate cut looms (YF)

• Cable crisis could nationalize local sports (Axios)

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Markets Rundown

Market Commentary

Stocks were mostly flat on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the S&P 500 and Dow unchanged while the Nasdaq edged up 0.2%.

Stronger-than-expected August retail sales and industrial production helped ease recent worries about U.S. economic growth.

Energy stocks led the S&P 500, boosted by a nearly 2% rise in crude oil prices, while small-cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up 0.6%.

Bond yields inched higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 3.66%. Markets are now focused on today’s Fed meeting, with a 59% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut expected.

This anticipated rate cut could mark the start of a longer cycle of monetary easing.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Gannett ($GCI) +19% after Citi upgraded the newspaper company.

• (+) Hewlett-Packard Enterprise ($HPE) +6% after JPMorgan upgraded the IT company.

• (–) Accenture ($ACN) -5% because the consulting firm will move promotions to June from December.

Private Dealmaking

• Apollo bought a 20% stake in the Trans Adriatic Pipeline for $1 billion

• Hotel Engine, a hospitality booking company, raised $140 million

• SafetyCulture, an enterprise ops company, raised $112 million

• Second Front Systems, a natural security software provider, raised $70 million

• FlexiLoans, an SME lender, raised $34.5 million

• XP Health, a vision care affordability startup, raised $33.2 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

But What Will People Say?

Writer and therapist Sahaj Kaur Kohli grew up knowing exactly what it means to straddle multiple cultures at once. Like many children of immigrants, she has often found herself plagued by questions: Can I establish my own values and embrace where I come from? Is prioritizing my mental health really rejecting my culture? How do I set boundaries and care for myself when family and community mean everything? Even after becoming a therapist herself, she saw those same gaps in the mental health world, leading her to wonder, like so many children of immigrants: what about us?

While conversations around mental health are becoming increasingly open, our models remain largely Eurocentric and focused on individuality. Sahaj has sought to challenge these long-held models, using deep personal reflection, therapy, community building, and a whole lot of trial and error, eventually navigating her own way to understanding and acceptance. Here, she shows us how to get there, all the while reminding us that personal healing is inextricably connected to collective healing.

But What Will People Say? elegantly weaves together personal narrative, anecdotal analysis, and comprehensive research. Sahaj offers advice and tools for everything from navigating generational trauma, guilt, and boundaries, to breaking down stigmas around therapy and celebrating cultural duality. Democratizing and decolonizing the way we think about mental health and self-help, Sahaj’s incredible work is nothing short of a revolution.

“A deeply personal, paradigm-shifting book rethinking traditional therapy and self-care, creating much-needed space for those left out of the narrative.”

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Rates Markets Are Pricing in a Recession

Despite surveys showing that the consensus is expecting a soft landing, rates markets are pricing in a full-blown recession.

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Laughter

In the 1960s, Norman Cousins, an American journalist, was diagnosed with a debilitating illness that left him in constant pain.

Unwilling to accept the grim prognosis, Cousins began his own treatment: daily doses of laughter through Marx Brothers films and Candid Camera episodes.

To everyone’s surprise, his condition improved dramatically.

He later documented his experience in his book, Anatomy of an Illness, arguing that laughter was a form of “inner jogging” that could enhance immune function and foster healing.

Cousins' story became a powerful testament to the healing power of laughter, showing us that sometimes, the best medicine is a good laugh. Know any good comedies?

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Short Squeez Picks

• How to communicate better at work

• 4 of the strongest predictors of divorce

• Simple ways to make yourself indispensable at work

• How to mentor a know-it-all effectively

• To be happier, stop thinking about happiness

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Memes of the Day