Good Morning! The Fed is likely to cut rates today, but some are worried that it might not be the right move. Databricks secured $10B in VC funding and Waymo will begin testing a Tokyo expansion. 

Elon Musk's mother reveals how much he's making to head DOGE. The Dow slid for the 9th day in a row, its longest losing streak since 1978. Broadcom is having its Nvidia moment but Nvidia slid another 2%, falling 14% from its all-time high.

Nima Momeni was found guilty of the killing of Cash App’s founder and accused Ivy League killer faced a new first-degree murder charge in New York.

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_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Apollo’s Succession Drama

Marc Rowan has been the CEO of Apollo for nearly four years, during which the firm has transformed into a $700 billion asset management giant, with private credit now driving around 80% of its business. This shift marks a departure from Apollo’s traditional focus on leveraged buyouts, reflecting Rowan's strategic vision.

But what happens when Rowan, who is 62, decides to retire? It turns out nobody really knows.

While Blackstone and KKR set the standard for seamless leadership transitions, Apollo hasn’t yet followed suit, leaving Wall Street guessing about its next CEO.

Rowan initially told investors he’d serve as CEO for five years or less. He’s reportedly enjoying the role so much that he’s expected to extend his tenure by another five years.

Despite this, last month saw Rowan unexpectedly emerge as a serious contender for Treasury Secretary under President-elect Donald Trump. Though Scott Bessent ultimately took the role, Rowan’s candidacy highlighted the lack of a clear succession plan at Apollo.

Potential successors include Co-Presidents James Zelter and Scott Kleinman, who have overseen Apollo’s daily operations since 2017, and John Zito, a rising star known for his credit expertise. But the longer Rowan stays, the more the dynamics of the succession race could shift.

Takeaway: Marc Rowan has redefined Apollo’s image, steering it from its "Barbarians at the Gate" legacy toward a more credit-focused future. While Rowan’s leadership has been stabilizing, his flirtation with politics underscores the urgency for Apollo to clarify its succession strategy. As Rowan extends his tenure, Apollo’s next chapter remains uncertain—kind of like a private equity firm trying to explain “succession planning” to Logan Roy.

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Why is Jerome Powell cutting rates now? (WSJ)

• Databricks raises $10 billion in VC at $62 billion valuation (CNBC)

• Apple reportedly has a foldable thinner iPhone model in the pipeline (Fox)

• Waymo to begin testing in Tokyo, its first international destination (CNBC)

• Elon Musk's mother reveals how much money he's making to head DOGE (Fox)

• Broadcom’s Nvidia moment has arrived (YF)

• U.S. bond investors brace for hawkish cuts (YF)

• Nissan shares surge 22% after media reports on merger with Honda (CNBC)

• Nima Momeni found guilty of murder in killing of Cash App founder (NBC)

• Accused Ivy League killer faces new first-degree murder charge in NY (Fox)

• Dow tumbles for 9-day losing streak, longest since 1978 (CNBC)

• Family offices face hidden risks in making direct investments (CNBC)

• Private equity is making big money from U.K.’s most vulnerable (YF)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Decline as Fed Decision Looms

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, led by declines in small- and mid-cap stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped for a ninth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak since 1978.

Markets were broadly lower, with consumer discretionary the only sector posting gains. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.40%, while WTI oil dropped on demand concerns following weaker-than-expected China retail sales.

Global markets were also down as investors await rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

Focus Shifts to Fed and Inflation Outlook

The FOMC concludes its meeting today, with markets widely expecting a 0.25% rate cut. If delivered, this would mark the third rate cut of the current easing cycle, bringing the target range to 4.25%–4.5%. However, the Fed is expected to signal a slower pace of easing moving forward, with potential pauses in early 2025.

Attention will then turn to Friday’s personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is forecast to tick up to 2.9% annually, with a 0.2% monthly rise, consistent with recent cooling but at a slower pace.

Retail Sales Reflect Consumer Resilience

November retail sales rose 0.7%, beating expectations of 0.5% growth, driven largely by a 2.6% surge in auto sales as recent hurricanes boosted vehicle demand.

This data underscores the resilience of the U.S. consumer, supported by a strong labor market and positive wage trends. While spending shows signs of moderation, the bumpy path remains consistent with the soft-landing narrative.

Continued consumer strength should bolster economic growth as we move into 2025.

Bond Markets Signal Modest Fed Expectations

With the current fed funds rate at 4.5%–4.75%, monetary policy remains firmly restrictive, as a neutral rate typically sits 1% above inflation.

Bond markets are pricing in 0.75% of total rate cuts over the next 12 months, indicating investor expectations for a gradual easing cycle.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) SolarEdge ($SEDG) +17% after a double upgrade from Goldman Sachs.

• (+) Pfizer ($PFE) +5% after a strong 2025 outlook.

• (–) Broadcom ($AVGO) -4% because the rally lost steam.

Private Dealmaking

• Virgin Music bought Downtown Music for $775 million

• Hostaway, a property rental firm, raised $365 million

• Avalanche, a Layer-1 blockchain platform, raised $250 million

• Arctic Wolf bought the assets of Cylance for $160 million

• Sublime Security, an email security platform, raised $60 million

• Keepit, a data protection provider, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Gambling Man

As Wall Street swooned and boomed through the last decade, our livelihoods have—now more than ever—come to rely upon the good sense and risk appetites of a few standout investors. And amidst the BlackRocks, Vanguards, and Berkshire Hathaways stands arguably the most iconoclastic of them all: SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son.

In Gambling Man, the first Western biography of Son, the self-professed unicorn hunter, we go behind the scenes of the world’s most monied halls of power in New York, Tokyo, Silicon Valley, Saudi Arabia, and beyond to see how Son’s firm SoftBank has defied conventional wisdom and imposing odds to push global tech and commerce into the future.

From the dizzying highs of Uber, DoorDash, and Slack to the epic lows of WeWork and tech-infused dogwalking app Wag Son and SoftBank have been at the center of cutting-edge capitalism’s absolute peaks and valleys. In the process, Son, son of a pachinko kingpin who grew up in a slum in Japan, has been a hero, a villain, and even a meme-ified hero to the internet tech- and finance-bro set all at once.

Based on in-depth research and eye-opening interviews, Gambling Man is an unforgettable character study and alarming true story of twenty-first-century commerce that will stick with you long after you turn the final page.

“The defining account of an era in business history.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

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_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Human Doom Loop

In our post-pandemic world, we’ve traded physical connection for digital convenience—working from home, shopping online, and streaming entertainment—and it’s quietly eroding our health, happiness, and social lives.

The result is a “human doom loop”: less physical activity, fewer face-to-face interactions, and declining public spaces, which then discourages us from leaving our homes at all.

The consequences are clear: loneliness has soared, physical well-being has plummeted, and cities are hollowing out.

Tech companies have perfected ways to keep us glued to screens, while real-world spaces—like grocery stores, theaters, and sidewalks—struggle to compete.

Breaking this cycle means reinvesting in our physical environments: lively third spaces, pedestrian-friendly cities, and opportunities to reconnect in person.

We need to tip the balance back to the real world before our virtual lives swallow us whole.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 10 cringey phrases people with low emotional intelligence use

• 8 traits of people who are better off staying single

• 8 habits of people who will never truly be happy

• Why emotional intelligence is a legitimate concept

• How to use the 10-80-10 rule to lead others

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day