Good Morning! Consumers splurged like never before this Thanksgiving, setting records across the board. U.S. theaters smashed records too, with Disney's "Moana 2," recording an all-time-best Thanksgiving opening of $221 million.

Citi is nearing its spinoff of Mexican consumer bank Banamex. ChatGPT turned two, adding $8 trillion in value to Big Tech. Apollo sees a $50 trillion opportunity in energy transition. Elon Musk teased a Hasbro acquisition, and President Biden pardoned his son, Hunter.

Plus, global dry powder has started to decline and five things to consider buying before new tariffs take effect.

Your future self will thank you: Get your FMVA® Certification and become a financial modeling expert.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

2025: The Year Coffee Gets Pricier

Finance bros and caffeine go together like Patagonia vests and Gucci loafers. But it’s looking like the morning cup of coffee you grab before work (or on your desk) is about to hit your wallet even harder.

Arabica coffee futures have soared nearly 70% this year to $3.175 per pound, the highest since 1977.

Brazil, the top arabica producer, has been hit with droughts and heatwaves, disrupting production for the fourth consecutive year. Robusta coffee, a cheaper alternative, is also seeing price spikes due to similar climate issues in Vietnam.

The supply crunch is hitting consumers hard. Coffee shops and giants like Starbucks and Dunkin' are already passing on the pain, with some reports suggesting prices could rise 10–20% by next year. In NYC, the average cappuccino is already $5.26, with premium drinks nearing $8, and those could easily surpass $10 in 2025.

Speculators aren’t helping either. Hedge funds are piling into coffee futures, and growers are hoarding beans to wait out higher margins. Add to that the EU’s new deforestation regulations, looming tariffs, and ongoing shipping delays, and coffee prices may remain volatile well into 2025.

Takeaway: Your daily coffee run is becoming an investment decision. At this rate, Starbucks might start offering payment plans. And if your bonus falls short, the free office coffee might not look so bad. Just remember to BYO oat milk, because that’s probably next in line for a price hike.

_{PRESENTED BY CORPORATE FINANCE INSTITUTE}

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Black Friday hits a record $74.4B in sales online (TC)

• Taylor Swift fans turn out on Black Friday for vinyl album (Reuters)

• Thanksgiving box office sets records (HR)

• Box Office: ‘Moana 2’ Tops Best Thanksgiving Ever (HR)

• Wall Street sees 'slower' pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 (YF)

• Elon Musk asks court to block OpenAI from converting to a for-profit (CNBC)

• A simpler Citigroup begins to take shape under Jane Fraser (WSJ)

• ​​ChatGPT turns two and gives $8 trillion birthday gift to Big Tech (BB)

• Apollo sees $50 trillion opportunity in energy transition (YF)

• Hasbro stock jumps as Elon Musk toys with idea of buying company (YF)

• 5 things to consider buying before new tariffs take effect (CNN)

• Citigroup nears Mexican consumer bank spinoff (YF)

• The US labor market has become 'low-hire, low-fire' (YF)

• Disney's doubling down on cruises — and Wall Street is on board (YF)

• President Biden pardoned son Hunter Biden (CNN)

• Why eastern Europe is one of the world's biggest buyers of gold (YF)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Major Indexes Hit Record Highs
On a shortened trading day after Thanksgiving, U.S. stocks closed higher, marking new record highs for the S&P 500 and the Dow. The Dow briefly surpassed the 45,000 level intraday before slipping just below it but still ended the session at an all-time best.

Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, also gained, along with oil and gold. Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% to reach $97,275, inching closer to its recent milestone of $100,000. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar softened, providing additional support for the broader market rally.

Black Friday and a Quiet Market Day
Retailers garnered attention on Black Friday, the official kickoff of the holiday shopping season. Walmart rose 0.7%, and Amazon gained 1.1%, reflecting optimism about consumer spending.

Overall, the day was light on U.S. economic data, leaving investors focused on global developments. However, the upcoming week promises a flurry of key reports, including the U.S. unemployment rate, manufacturing data, consumer sentiment, and factory orders, which will provide deeper insights into the economy as 2024 winds down.

Inflation Data Drives International Focus
With minimal domestic news, investors turned their attention overseas. The Eurozone reported an annual inflation rate of 2.3% in November, up from October’s 2% and in line with projections, while core inflation held steady at 2.7%.

Similarly, Japan posted an annual inflation rate of 2.3%, slightly above expectations, reinforcing signs of price stability across major economies. These figures suggest inflation is sticky but manageable as global markets adjust to shifting monetary policies.

Looking Ahead to December
Traders are increasingly optimistic about a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 66.3% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Despite today’s quiet session, the path ahead is set to heat up with critical U.S. labor market and inflation data that could shape the Fed’s next moves.

As the holiday season gains momentum, investors will closely monitor how consumer spending and global economic conditions influence markets in the final stretch of the year.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Zeta Global Holdings ($ZETA) +5% after the marketing software company’s CEO called a short seller report ‘erroneous’.

• (+) Hasbro ($HAS) +2% after Elon Musk teased an acquisition of the company to secure the rights to Dungeons & Dragons.

• (–) Advance Auto Parts ($AAP) -7% after a downgrade by Moody’s.

Private Dealmaking

• BlackRock in talks to buy HPS for $12 billion 

• Inu, an employee benefits platform, raised $30 million

• Cardless, a co-branded credit card startup, raised $30 million

• Zopper, an Indian personalized insurer, raised $25 million

• Constrafor, a contractors financing provider, raised $14 million

• OpenYield, a bond marketplace, raised $7 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Read People Like a Book

Read People Like a Book isn’t a normal book on body language of facial expression. 

Yes, it includes all of those things, as well as new techniques on how to truly detect lies in your everyday life, but this book is more about understanding human psychology and nature.

We are who we are because of our experiences and pasts, and this guides our habits and behaviors more than anything else.

Parts of this book read like the most interesting and applicable psychology textbook you’ve ever read.

Take a look inside yourself and others!

“Helps you unlock the key to happiness and fulfillment.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Private Equity Dry Powder Declining

_{PRESENTED BY JKBX}

When Beyoncé Gets Paid, So Could You

Streaming platforms pay billions in royalties. JKBX opens the door to invest in royalty shares of iconic songs, earning quarterly distributions tied to their performance.

This isn’t about fanfare—it’s about diversification. Music royalties offer a potential income stream tied to one thing people never stop doing: pressing play.*

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Generosity in Leadership

Warren Buffett believes that true success is built on generosity—helping others, sharing credit, and giving your time. This approach not only builds trust and loyalty but also attracts long-term support, fostering greater success.

Generosity in leadership isn’t about giving money—it’s about being generous with attention, patience, and recognition. Listening without interrupting, offering specific praise, and sharing growth opportunities can all help create a positive workplace culture. When people feel valued, they’re more motivated and productive, leading to collective progress. 

Adam Grant's research in "Give and Take" supports this: a culture of generosity enhances success and cohesion. Leaders who model generosity inspire their teams to go above and beyond, making generosity an investment in everyone's future.

Incorporate generosity into your daily actions—share expertise, praise others, or show patience. By doing so, you create an environment where people feel supported, connected, and driven to succeed.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• How to influence people and succeed at work

• How to make a good cardio playlist

• Why you shouldn’t make your bed in the morning

• 7 perks the front desk staff can give you

• What it takes to build products for millions

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day