Good Morning and Happy Friday! The 49ers may be the next NFL team to tap private equity, exploring a 10% stake sale at a $9B valuation. OpenAI’s user base topped 400M, and Amazon spent $1B for creative control of James Bond.

Trump is upset with Boeing over Air Force One delays—and, per new Commerce Secretary Lutnick, wants to abolish the IRS: “His goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay.”

Plus: Amazon just surpassed Walmart in revenue, McKinsey says RTO won’t boost productivity, and how to ace the What do you do? question.

Work smarter, finish faster—join 80,000+ analysts using Macabacus.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

2025’s IPO Flop

Wall Street thrives on a blockbuster IPO - big demand, last-minute price hikes, and that glorious first-day pop that signals investor enthusiasm. Investment bankers love them even more, thanks to the hefty fees they rake in. But 2025’s IPO market? It’s been anything but a party.

Three of the four largest IPOs this year have stumbled out of the gate, trading below their offer prices. And the kicker? This isn’t happening in a bear market, stocks are hovering near all-time highs. That means the issue isn’t macroeconomic gloom; it’s the deals themselves.

Take Venture Global, a liquefied natural gas company that once eyed a $110 billion valuation. Investors weren’t buying the hype, forcing the company to slash expectations. Since its January debut, it has erased $24 billion in market cap, making it 2025’s biggest IPO disaster.

Meanwhile, Thoma Bravo-backed SailPoint, a cybersecurity firm, dropped nearly 10% in its first session before clawing back some gains. The trend is clear: inflated expectations are getting a reality check.

For companies considering an IPO, the warning signs are flashing. Klarna, CoreWeave, and Genesys Cloud Services are among the next wave of firms eyeing public listings, each hoping to fetch valuations north of $10 billion. But with investors pushing for lower prices while issuers cling to lofty valuations, these deals could be stuck in limbo.

The data tells the story: The median first-day return for U.S. IPOs over $300M this year is under 5%, a stark drop from the 12% median pop seen in the past three years. The IPO honeymoon phase? Officially over.

Some on Wall Street argue that the market isn’t the problem, execution is. Bankers claim that many IPOs are being poorly structured, while others insist that the best time to go public is when companies and the market are in sync. Right now, that alignment is off.

Takeaway: While AI hype has fueled broader market gains, the IPO market isn’t handing out easy wins. If 2025’s current track record continues, companies sitting on the IPO fence have little reason to jump in. The pressure is on for the next wave of deals to deliver—for investors, for companies, and, of course, for the bankers who need a win.

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_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• San Francisco 49ers explore selling minority stake to private equity (CNBC)

• Tech OpenAI tops 400 million users (CNBC)

• Amazon doubles down on struggling video business with 007 (SN)

• Walmart shares drop as retailer says profit growth will slow (CNBC)

• Amazon surpasses Walmart in revenue for first time (CNBC)

• Mortgage rates stay below 7% for fifth straight week (YF)

• Trump is not happy with Boeing over Air Force One delays (CNBC)

• How many federal workers has DOGE laid off? (TH)

• Elon Musk may salvage his $44 billion investment in X (CNN)

• Trump announces plans to speak with China and keep TikTok 'alive' (Fox)

• Layoffs begin at the IRS ahead of tax season (Axios)

• Inside Trump's plan to 'abolish' the IRS and what it would mean for your money (Fox)

• KKR wins control of $4.4 billion Fuji Soft after Bain clash (YF)

• McKinsey says return-to-office won’t actually make you more productive (YF)

• Wall Street’s utility players are now profit machines (BB)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Decline as Walmart’s Outlook Disappoints

U.S. equity markets closed lower Thursday, with financial and consumer discretionary stocks leading losses. Walmart reported strong fourth-quarter results but issued a weaker-than-expected outlook, weighing on sentiment.

Global markets also declined, with China’s central bank holding rates steady and Europe pulling back from record highs. 

Bond yields dropped, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.50%, while the U.S. dollar weakened. WTI oil rose following a disruption in Russia’s Caspian pipeline after a Ukraine drone strike.

Jobless claims rose slightly to 219,000, above estimates of 215,000, though the four-week average remains stable. With unemployment at 4.0% and job openings still exceeding job seekers, wage gains are outpacing inflation, supporting consumer spending.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3% in January, though its six-month trend is improving and does not signal recession risk.

While weaker consumer expectations and shorter work hours were negatives, stabilizing manufacturing orders and a steeper yield curve suggest continued economic resilience despite ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Hasbro ($HAS) +13% after the toy maker had a strong quarter.

• (+) Shake Shack ($SHAK) +11% after the fast-casual chain posted strong sales growth; new chains.

• (–) Carvana ($CVNA) -12% because of a lack of guidance specificity from the used car retailer.

Private Dealmaking

• KKR bought a 57.9% stake in FujiSoft for $4.4 billion

• Celsius bought Alani Nu, a rival energy drink maker, for $1.8 billion

• Lambda, a GPU cloud company, raised $480 million

• Dream, a cybersecurity startup, raised $100 million 

• Luminance Technologies, a legal AI startup, raised $75 million 

• High Definition Vehicle Insurance, a commercial auto insurance startup, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Why We Die

The knowledge of death is so terrifying that we live most of our lives in denial of it. One of the most difficult moments of childhood must be when each of us first realizes that not only we but all our loved ones will die—and there is nothing we can do about it.

Or at least, there hasn’t been. Today, we are living through a revolution in biology. Giant strides are being made in understanding why we age—and why some species live longer than others. Could we eventually cheat disease and death and live for a very long time, possibly many times our current lifespan?

Venki Ramakrishnan, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry and former president of the Royal Society, takes us on a riveting journey to the frontiers of biology, asking whether we must be mortal.

Covering the recent breakthroughs in scientific research, he examines the cutting edge of efforts to extend lifespan by altering our physiology. But might death serve a necessary biological purpose? What are the social and ethical costs of attempting to live forever?

Why We Die is a narrative of uncommon insight and beauty from one of our leading public intellectuals.

“A groundbreaking exploration of the science of longevity and mortality.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

a16z's National Stage

Venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz's name reached whole new levels in the national consciousness after hiring Daniel Penny as a deal partner earlier this month

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_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Strategic Thinking

Strategic thinking is not an innate gift but a skill that can be cultivated through practice and experience.

According to Michael D. Watkins, mastering strategic thinking requires six key abilities: the capacity to anticipate challenges, critically analyze situations, interpret complex information, make smart trade-offs, align actions with priorities, and continuously learn from outcomes.

Leaders who develop these disciplines can recognize emerging opportunities, navigate uncertainty, and mobilize teams effectively.

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_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• 8-word secret for better speaking and presentation skills

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• How to respond when people ask what you do

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• Are you being a nice jerk?

• Upgrade your morning investing insights with Opening Bell Daily

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day